族群政治、選舉結果與民主鞏固：馬來西亞的實證研究

Abstract

在不同的選舉結果和政府組成下，各族群的民主支持度差距是否也會有所改變？本文以選舉贏家輸家和族群投票作為研究架構，探討馬來西亞半島各族群在2013、2018和2022年選舉後的民主支持度差距，以及支持度差距的變動。在2013年有過半巫裔是選舉贏家，但是往後兩次選舉卻有過半巫裔成為輸家，華裔和印裔則相反。選舉輸家過半的族群可能會比較不滿意選舉結果，也會認為選舉產生的政府無法代表自己，因此會有較低的民主支持度，贏家過半的族群則相反。本文採用亞洲民主動態調查2014、2019和2023年針對馬來西亞的面訪資料，以反對威權體制的程度作為民主支持的測量，藉由「邏輯迴歸模型」進行分析。實證結果顯示，在2014年，相較於巫裔，印裔的民主支持度較低，華裔則沒有顯著差異。在2019年，相較於巫裔，華裔的民主支持度較高，且差距相較於2014年顯著擴大；印裔的民主支持度較低，差距相較於2014年沒有顯著改變。在2023年，相較於巫裔，華裔的民主支持度較高，且差距相較於2014年顯著擴大；印裔的民主支持度在部分情況下顯著較高，且差距相較於2014年顯著改變。相較於2014年，巫裔在2023年的民主支持度則顯著下降。分析結果印證了大部分的研究假設。儘管後續分析顯示，反對威權不一定等同於支持民主價值，然而對於處在民主化階段的馬來西亞，最大族群巫裔對於威權體制的反對程度有所下降，可能成為民主發展與鞏固的隱憂。

Do ethnic differences in support for democracy vary under different electoral outcomes and government compositions? This study employs the concepts of electoral winners and losers as well as ethnic voting to examine the differences and changes in democratic support among ethnic groups in Peninsular Malaysia following the general elections of 2013, 2018, and 2022. In the 2013 election, a majority of Malays were electoral winners, whereas in the subsequent two elections, most Malays became losers. In contrast, most Chinese and Indians transitioned from electoral losers to winners. Ethnic groups in which the majority are electoral losers may be more dissatisfied with the election outcomes and more likely to perceive the elected government as unrepresentative of their interests, leading to lower levels of democratic support, while groups with a majority among winners may show the opposite tendency. This study utilizes face-to-face survey data from the Asian Barometer Survey conducted in 2014, 2019, and 2023 in Malaysia. Democratic support is measured through respondents’ rejection of authoritarian rule, and logistic regression models are used for analysis. The empirical findings reveal that in 2014, compared to Malays, Indians exhibited lower democratic support, while no significant difference was found between Malays and Chinese. In 2019, Chinese demonstrated significantly higher democratic support than Malays, and the gap widened relative to 2014; Indians’ support remained lower, with no significant change from 2014. In 2023, Chinese support for democracy remained significantly higher than Malays, and the gap widened compared to 2014. Indians’ support was significantly higher in certain contexts, and the gap compared to 2014 also changed significantly. Furthermore, Malays’ support for democracy significantly declined in 2023 relative to 2014. These results largely support the proposed hypotheses. Although subsequent analyses suggest that opposition to authoritarianism does not necessarily imply full support for democratic values, the decline in rejection of authoritarianism among Malays—the country’s majority group—may pose a potential threat to Malaysia’s democratic development and consolidation.