政治菁英、經濟國策與外交政策：以斯里蘭卡參與一帶一路前後的對外行為為例（2013-2022）

Abstract

本論文探討斯里蘭卡在債務危機壓力下的外交決策動態。自2014年起，斯里蘭卡加入中國主導的「一帶一路倡議」，這項倡議被視為二十一世紀最具代表性的經濟國策之一。然而，斯里蘭卡因此背負沉重財政負擔，最終在親近印度的總統任內，被迫將漢班托塔港的控制權讓渡予中國，以紓解債務危機。2020年起，斯里蘭卡政治菁英亦有主張「印度優先」的外交路線，然而聯合國大會（UNGA）的實際投票行為卻與此立場不符。 本研究因此基於新古典現實主義的理論框架提出一個研究問題：小國的外交決策究竟受何因素主導？它們是更傾向追隨政治菁英的立場，抑或更傾向依附提供經濟支持的強權？為回應此一研究問題，本文將聯合國大會的外交投票資料視為依變項，並以中國對斯里蘭卡的貸款金額作為主要自變項，進一步剖析各任總統任內外交行為的差異。 本文主張，中國經濟國策對於斯里蘭卡的外交利益相似度具有更大的影響力，其效果往往超越親近印度的政治菁英所作出的短期效果。研究結果不僅為「經濟國策」理論提供支持，也應用新古典現實主義，對於不對稱關係中小國的外交行為，提供更多詮釋。

關鍵詞： 中國、一帶一路、斯里蘭卡、債務危機、經濟國策、新古典現實主義

This thesis investigates the diplomatic decision-making in Sri Lanka while being af-fected by the debt crisis. Starting in 2014, Sri Lanka joined the One Belt, One Road Initia-tive (Hereafter known as BRI). BRI, an economic initiative launched by China, has been one of the most prominent forms of economic statecraft in the 21st century. However, Sri Lanka has suffered the financial ramifications from BRI, and thus forced to remedy its fiscal situation by giving up the control of Hambantota port during Mahinda Rajapaksa’s presidency. Later in 2020, the political elites in Colombo urged the leadership to engage in “India First” approach. Despite this rhetorical shift toward India, empirical indicators tell a different story. The voting patterns in the United Nation General Assembly (Hereafter: UNGA) suggested otherwise, albeit the political elites’ overt announcement. This raised an intriguing research question in the FOPO study and International Relation: What de-termined the diplomatic outcome from a small country? Do small states align with the preferences of their political leadership, or with the powers that provide the greatest eco-nomic support? Neoclassical realism emphasizes the role of political leadership and do-mestic intervening variables in shaping foreign policy behavior, often underestimating structural economic factors such as asymmetric dependence. This thesis examines the data from UNGA as the dependent variable, the accumulated amount of debt from China as the explanatory variable, and takes a close examination of Sri Lanka’s presidential administra-tions. In so doing, the thesis highlights the theoretical implication of economic statecraft, and revisits the existing neoclassical realism as the paradigm in the International Relation study. Keywords: China, BRI, Sri Lanka, Debt Crisis, Economic Statecraft, Neoclassical Realism