安倍晉三對華戰略之改變：Quad倡議之起源與發展

Abstract

二次世界大戰後的日本在吉田茂首相的領導下，認為當時日本亟需振興國內經濟，採取透過《美日安全保障條約》讓美國保衛日本的安全，並全力振興國內經濟，被稱為「吉田主義」，在對華戰略上則採取協調策略，基本上設定了戰後日本的戰略框架。然而進入二十一世紀後，中國挾其經濟快速成長之優勢，開始在東海及南海進行擴張；安倍晉三很快地認知到中國對日本乃至於對全球民主國家將構成政治、軍事、經濟等全方位的威脅，於是開始重新調整日本國家戰略與對華戰略。他首先在國內鬆綁自衛隊得以依集體自衛權行動的相關法律，在外交上則催生四方安全對話(Quad)作為對華戰略下的一個重要國際合作框架。本文透過對於Quad的成立及復活的研究以論證安倍晉三改變了日本戰後對華戰略與如何改變，並探討其對於印太地區地緣政治的影響。安排上分別從Quad 1.0為何會出現、中止的原因為何、Quad 2.0為何重啟、為何在安倍下台後仍持續發展探討，觀察Quad的演進，最後分析 Quad 2.0與臺灣的關係，並嘗試對其未來發展提供預測。

After World War II, under Prime Minister Shigeru Yoshida’s leadership, Japan adopted a security-economic strategy known as the "Yoshida Doctrine," which relied on the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty for national defense while focusing on domestic economic recovery. This doctrine also shaped Japan’s conciliatory approach toward China. However, in the 21st century, China's rapid economic rise and expansion in the East and South China Seas posed multidimensional threats to democratic nations. Recognizing this shift, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reoriented Japan’s national and China strategies by loosening legal constraints on the Self-Defense Forces and promoting the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) as a key framework for international cooperation. This paper examines how Abe transformed Japan’s postwar China policy through the formation and revival of the Quad, analyzes its geopolitical impact on the Indo-Pacific region, and explores its implications for Taiwan and future developments.