共機擾臺、媒體框架與臺灣民眾的鷹鴿氛圍

Abstract

本研究探討中國共機擾臺行動，如何透過新聞報導的中介作用與黨派立場新聞報導的框架，影響臺灣民眾的鷹派與鴿派情緒氛圍。本文將此視為一場帶有戰略意圖的「鷹鴿賽局」訊號操作，並引入媒體框架、選擇性接觸與動機化推理與認知失調等理論來詮釋民眾的心理反應。研究蒐集自2022年至2025年共873日的時間序列資料，涵蓋共機動態、新聞報導篇數與網路輿論聲量，並運用ADL模型與中介、調節效應分析進行實證檢驗。結果顯示，共機行動對公眾氛圍的影響必須透過新聞報導的中介才能發揮作用，新聞報導每增加1%總量，將使鷹派氛圍增加0.50%、鴿派氛圍增加0.35%。偏綠新聞對民眾的鷹鴿氛圍皆具推升效果，偏藍新聞則僅對鷹派有延遲抑制。整體而言，中共藉軍事壓力轉移臺灣鷹鴿氛圍的企圖不但未能成功，反因媒體框架與心理機制產生反效果，加劇臺灣內部的公眾情緒氛圍極化與對立分岐。

This study examines how China’s warplane incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) affect public sentiment through the mediation and framing of news coverage in general, and partisan news reports in particular. Considering these incursions as a strategically motivated Hawk–Dove game, the analysis draws on theories of media framing, selective exposure, motivated reasoning, and cognitive dissonance to explain the response in Taiwan’s public sentiment. Using 873 days of time-series data from 2022 to 2025, including warplane activity, news reports, and public-sentiment indicators derived from social listening data, the study employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) models to assess the media’s framing effects. The results show that military actions influence public sentiment indirectly through media reporting. A 1 % step-increase in news reports produces a 0.50 % increase in hawkish sentiment and a 0.35 % increase in dovish sentiment. News coverage from Green-leaning reports amplifies both hawkish and dovish responses, while Blue-leaning reports moderately suppress hawkish sentiment. These findings suggest that China’s coercive signaling did not achieve its intended objective of shifting public attitudes toward dovish sentiment. Instead, media dynamics and cognitive biases contribute to the polarization of public sentiment within Taiwanese society.