政府舉債與企業槓桿之關聯：以G8國家為例

Abstract

本研究以G8 國家為樣本，探討政府舉債行為對企業資本結構的影響。透過1990至2023年的公司與總體層級資料，本文首先檢驗政府舉債對於企業槓桿之排擠效果（Crowding-Out Effect），其次分析在財政條件改善與政府投資情境下，是否存在企業槓桿之擠入效果（Crowding-In Effect）。 實證結果顯示，政府舉債與企業槓桿呈現穩定負向關係；而使用軍事支出作為工具變數進行內生性檢定，排擠效果依舊顯著，顯示政府債務擴張可能透過資金競爭、信貸壓縮等機制，降低企業舉債空間。而財政盈餘訊號具正向調節效果：當政府結構性財政表現優於同期間平均水準時，企業槓桿使用顯著上升，隱含政府穩健之財政表現，能提升企業風險承擔意願並刺激借貸行為。最後，政府投資具備遞延性的擠入效果：實證發現政府投資對企業投資有明確的遞延正向影響，且企業投資與槓桿呈正相關，顯示政府投資能透過企業投資的中介機制，提升企業舉債的意願與能力。 本研究提供三點政策建議：（1）政府在大規模舉債時，應評估對民間資本市場之擠壓效應；（2）政府須透過維持良好財政紀律，釋放正向訊號以穩定市場預期；（3）政府應提升公共支出之生產性與預期透明度，強化其長期正面經濟影響。

This study investigates the impact of government borrowing on corporate capital structure, using data from both firm-level and macroeconomic levels across G8 countries from 1990 to 2023. The analysis first examines whether government debt exerts a crowding-out effect on corporate leverage, and subsequently explores the potential crowding-in effect under conditions of improved fiscal performance and government investment. Empirical results reveal a robust and negative relationship between government debt and corporate leverage. Even after addressing endogeneity through the use of military expenditure as an instrumental variable, the crowding-out effect remains statistically significant, suggesting that rising government debt may reduce firms’ borrowing capacity through capital market competition and credit constraints. Additionally, fiscal surplus signals play a positive moderating role: when a country’s structural fiscal balance exceeds the contemporaneous average, firms tend to increase their leverage, indicating that sound fiscal conditions can enhance corporate risk tolerance and borrowing incentives. Finally, government investment exhibits a lagged crowding-in effect: empirical evidence shows that public investment positively affects corporate investment after several periods, and corporate investment is positively associated with leverage. This supports a mediated transmission mechanism whereby government investment stimulates corporate investment, subsequently increasing corporate leverage. This study offers three policy implications: (1) governments should assess the crowding-out effect of large-scale borrowing on private capital markets; (2) maintaining sound fiscal discipline helps send positive signals and stabilize market expectations, and (3) enhancing the productivity and transparency of public spending can strengthen its long-term positive economic effects.