美國上市公司分析師關注度與年報敘述語氣之關聯與未來獲利意涵

Abstract

本研究探討在為其作盈餘預測之分析師人數增加較多(少)時，美國上市公司是否會下(上)調年報管理層討論與分析（MD&A）中的語氣樂觀程度? 以及此類語氣變動是否有助於預測企業之後續經營績效。本研究就2005年至2025年間美國上市公司樣本，結合EDGAR年報、WRDS財務資料及Loughran 與 McDonald語氣字典，進行兩階段迴歸分析。第一階段結果顯示，當分析師報導人數明顯增加較多(少)時，企業年報語氣顯著收斂(進取)、趨於保守(樂觀)。第二階段測試進一步發現，因分析師報導增加較多(少)而誘發的語氣調整，與企業後續績效（益本比變化率、資產報酬率）呈顯著正向關聯，顯示此類語氣調整於投資人有資訊價值。綜上，本研究證實企業在外部市場關注提升下，會調整年報語氣，反映管理階層對實際經營狀況的真實認知。

This study explores whether and the extent to which US listed companies will revise downwards (upwards) the optimism of the tone in the sessions of Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) of the annual reports when the numbers of analysts providing earnings forecasts for the firms increases more significantly (fewer)? Furthermore, it tests whether such tone changes help predict the subsequent operating performance of the company. This study conducts a two-stage regression analysis based on a sample of US listed companies from 2005 to 2025, matching data from EDGAR annual reports, WRDS financials, and Loughran and McDonald tone dictionary. The results of the first stage show that when the number of analysts covering a firm increases more significantly (fewer), the tone of the company's annual report appears to be significantly less (more) aggressive. The second phase of tests further provides findings that the tone adjustment induced by the change in analyst coverage significantly and positively correlates with the company's subsequent changes in earnings-to-price ratio and return on assets, indicating that such tone adjustment has information value to the market. In summary, this study confirms that companies will adjust the tone of their annual reports when external market attention changes, reflecting management's true understanding of the actual operating conditions.