淘汰種母豬拍賣行為對當地產地市場拍賣價格之分析-以雲林縣為例

Abstract

本研究以112年至113年間雲林縣肉品市場的週資料105筆為樣本，運用線性迴歸模型分析影響肉豬拍賣價格的因素3類，共計9項相關因素，包含雲林縣肉品市場拍賣數據4項，淘汰種母豬平均價格、豬隻拍賣數量、是否有淘汰種母豬品項拍賣及肉豬拍賣競標人數；因節慶而休市相關數據4項，豬隻拍賣當週是否因農曆春節、端午節、中元節及中秋節發生而休市；以及豬隻拍賣發生時間是否在113年。並透過逐步迴歸分析篩選最具解釋力的變數。其中雲林縣肉品市場為臺灣所有肉品市場中有辦理淘汰種母豬拍賣之肉品市場，針對此特殊性納入分析。結果顯示，淘汰種母豬拍賣相關數據對於肉豬拍賣價格影響有限。

This study used 105 weekly records from 2023 to 2024 at the Yunlin County Meat Market as the sample. A linear regression model was employed to analyze three categories of factors—nine variables in total—that may influence the auction price of hogs. These included four variables from auction data at the Yunlin Meat Market: the average price of culled sows, the number of hogs auctioned, whether culled sows were auctioned that week, and the number of bidders. Four other variables reflected market closures due to traditional festivals, specifically the weeks during Lunar New Year, Dragon Boat Festival, Ghost Festival, and Mid-Autumn Festival. The final variable examined whether the auction occurred in 2024 . A stepwise regression analysis was used to identify the most influential explanatory variables. Yunlin County Meat Market is unique among Taiwan’s meat markets in that it conducts auctions for culled sows, and this special feature was included in the analysis. Results indicated that data related to culled sow auctions had limited impact on the price of hogs.