消費型市場與生產型市場降雨天數毛豬價格的差異-以桃園市與雲林縣為例

Abstract

本研究以桃園市與雲林縣兩地市場為例，探討降雨天數對毛豬價格之影響，並分析消費型市場與生產型市場在價格傳導機制上的差異。研究背景基於氣候變異對農畜產品市場的重要衝擊，尤其在豬肉市場中，降雨天數作為一項氣候指標，不僅影響生產環境與飼料成本，更可能通過物流與供應鏈影響最終交易價格。桃園市作為代表消費型市場，市場資訊透明且受物流變動調節能力較強；雲林縣則具生產型市場特性，其價格波動較直接反映生產成本與環境因素的影響。 研究首先回顧相關文獻，闡明市場類型、氣候因素與價格決定機制之理論基礎；接著，設計以政府公開資料為來源的量化研究方法，建立包括描述性統計、相關性分析與多元迴歸模型等研究工具，並分別針對兩地市場建立迴歸模型以檢驗降雨天數對毛豬價格的影響。實證結果顯示，降雨天數對毛豬價格均具正向影響，但在兩種市場中效應存在顯著異質性，桃園市市場中因物流與市場調控因素影響較緩，而雲林縣則顯現出較高的敏感度。最後，本研究討論了氣候因素在市場價格形成中的傳導機制，並提出針對性政策建議，期望為農業市場調控與風險管理提供參考依據，同時指出未來可從資料擴充與模型改進等面向進一步深化研究。

The study takes Taoyuan City and Yunlin County as examples to investigate the impact of rainfall days on the hog price and to analyze the differences in the price transmission mechanism between consumer and production markets. The background of this study is based on the important impact of climate variability on agricultural and livestock product markets. Especially in the pork market, the number of days of rainfall, as a climate indicator, not only affects the production environment and feed costs, but also influences the final transaction price through the logistics and supply chain. Taoyuan City, as a representative consumer market, has transparent market information and is more capable of being adjusted by changes in logistics, while Yunlin County has the characteristics of a production-oriented market, where price fluctuations are more directly reflective of the effects of production costs and environmental factors. The study firstly reviewed the relevant literature to clarify the theoretical basis of market type, climate factors and price determination mechanism; then, the study designed a quantitative research methodology based on the government's public data, and established research tools including descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and multivariate regression modeling, and built regression models to examine the impact of the number of days of rainfall on the price of the woolly pig in the two markets respectively. The empirical results showed that the number of days of rainfall had a positive effect on the price of the hog, but there was significant heterogeneity in the effects in the two markets, with the Taoyuan City market having a slower effect due to logistic and market regulation factors, and the Yunlin County showing a higher sensitivity. Finally, this study discusses the transmission mechanism of climate factors in the formation of market prices, and puts forward specific policy recommendations to provide a reference basis for agricultural market regulation and risk management, and points out that the study can be further deepened in the future by expanding the data and improving the model.