台灣公教人員個人退休金帳戶改革對總體經濟的影響

Abstract

本文建構了一個具有一般均衡的生命週期模型，以分析台灣於民國112年7月1日起為新進公教人員建立之新退撫制度對總體經濟的影響。新的退撫制度將採用「確定提撥制」設立個人退休金帳戶。政策分析顯示，個體方面，此改革將使公教人員的資產及消費顯著提升，並且退休年齡提前，因此公教人員的福利提升。對一般勞工而言，改革的影響主要是間接的一般均衡效果，除了資產外，對勞工的影響相對有限，整體而言一般勞工的福利些微下降。總體方面，改革使總產出及資本總量上升，均衡利率下降。資本總量上升透過生產要素互補效果，促使均衡工資率上升。

This paper constructs a general equilibrium life-cycle model to analyze the macroeconomic impacts of the new pension reform implemented in Taiwan on July 1, 2023, for newly recruited civil servants. The new system adopts a defined contribution (DC) structure and establishes individual retirement accounts.The reform significantly increases civil servants’ assets and consumption while encouraging earlier retirement, thereby enhancing their overall welfare. On the other hand, the influence on workers is minor, mainly via the general equilibrium effect, and slightly lowers worker's welfare.In terms of aggregate effects, the reform leads to an increase in aggregate output and capital accumulation, accompanied by a decline in the equilibrium interest rate. The rise in capital, through the complementarity of production factors, further contributes to an increase in the equilibrium wage rate.