台灣企業於經濟衰退期間之跨國併購- 長短期績效分析

Abstract

本研究旨在探討臺灣上市櫃公司於2003至2024年間進行之跨國併購交易，並分析其在不同景氣情境下主併公司之短期與長期表現。相較於既有文獻多聚焦於歐美成熟市場，本研究補足亞洲新興經濟體、特別是中型出口導向企業於景氣循環階段之併購策略研究空缺，並進一步整合金融危機情境、跨國併購事件，以及短期與長期績效表現四個面向，提供較以往更為全面且系統性的實證觀察。本文採用事件研究法估計短期市場反應之累積異常報酬（CAR），並以產業調整後之資產報酬率（IAROA）、利潤率（IAMARGIN）與買進並持有異常報酬（BHAR）衡量併購後之長期經營及市場績效，進一步結合多元迴歸分析檢驗經濟衰退期間是否對績效表現產生顯著影響。 實證結果顯示：一、在短期市場反應方面，若併購交易發生於經濟衰退期間，則CAR呈現顯著負向，反映投資人對不確定性環境下併購行為持保守態度；二、在長期績效方面，無論為會計績效或股價績效，危機期間對併購後表現並未產生統計上顯著影響，反而企業本身的前期績效與整合能力更具解釋力；三、短期CAR與長期BHAR呈負相關，顯示市場初期反應可能過度反應，後續需進行價值修正。研究結果突顯，企業進行跨國併購時應強調策略合理性與整合執行力，而非僅依賴總體經濟情境做為判斷基礎。

This study examines cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) by Taiwanese listed firms from 2003 to 2024, focusing on both short-term and long-term performance under varying economic conditions. Addressing a gap in the literature, it highlights the M&A behavior of export-oriented mid-sized firms in emerging Asian markets and integrates four dimensions: financial crisis, cross-border M&A, short-term market reactions, and long-term outcomes. Using event study methodology, short-term cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) are estimated, while long-term performance is measured by industry-adjusted ROA, profit margins, and buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHAR). Regression analysis tests the impact of economic downturns on M&A outcomes. Results show that M&A during recessions yield significantly negative CAR, suggesting investor caution. However, long-term performance is not significantly affected by crisis timing, with firm-specific factors proving more influential. A negative relationship between CAR and BHAR indicates possible market overreaction. The findings suggest firms should prioritize strategic fit and integration capability over economic timing in cross-border M&A