未來氣候情境下建築能源翻修策略之多目標最佳化：兼顧經濟、環境與人體舒適

Abstract

過去研究指出，倘若被動式建築外部能源翻修僅以歷史氣象資料評估，將可能低估未來氣候變遷之影響。為解決此問題，本研究建構一套多目標評估架構，於 70 年生命週期內，同時採用基準之典型氣象年（Typical Meteorological Year）與依 CMIP6 情境調整之中期氣候預測氣象檔，評估各項整建方案。本研究以 Rhino, Grasshopper, Honeybee, Eppy, EnergyPlus等工具建構參數化且自動化之流程，模擬多種能源翻修策略；並以 NSGA-II 演算法求解投資成本、生命週期碳排放與熱不舒適時數之帕累托最適解。進一步結合 CRITIC 目標權重法與 TOPSIS 排序法，客觀提出優先翻修建議。結果顯示，於整棟建築全生命週期內，同時考量基準與未來氣候條件，可在僅需中度額外投資下，顯著降低碳排放並提升熱舒適度；其中最終排名第一之方案在兩種氣候情境下皆能維持穩定效益，證實納入未來氣候資訊與系統化最佳化之必要性。所提架構可於不同氣候情境下，提供具實證基礎之建築能源翻修決策參考。未來工作將進一步整合主動式 HVAC系統、建築再生能源與機率化成本分析，以更全面支援建築能源翻修之生命週期規劃。

While passive building envelope retrofits are often evaluated using historical weather data, such assessments may under represent future climate impacts. To address this, a multi-objective framework was developed to assess retrofit options over a 70-year lifecycle using both a baseline Typical Meteorological Year EnergyPlus Weather File (EPW) and a CMIP6-morphed EPW for projected mid-century conditions. A parametric Rhino/Grasshopper–Honeybee–Eppy workflow automated EnergyPlus simulations across various envelope configurations. Subsequently, NSGA-II identified Pareto-optimal trade-offs among investment cost, life-cycle carbon emissions, and thermal discomfort hours. An objective decision-analysis layer, employing CRITIC weighting and TOPSIS ranking, generated prioritized retrofit recommendations. When evaluated over the full service life under both baseline and future-climate inputs, the framework identified strategies that achieved notable emissions reductions and comfort improvements with moderate additional investment. In particular, the highest-ranked solution maintained consistent performance across both weather inputs, demonstrating the value of incorporating future-climate data and systematic optimization. Consequently, the framework provides clear, data-driven guidance for selecting resilient envelope upgrades under a low-forcing scenario. Future work will integrate active HVAC measures, on-site renewables, and probabilistic cost analysis to support comprehensive lifecycle retrofit planning.