租客變屋主?房貸補貼與租屋市場

Abstract

為了減輕年輕人的購屋負擔，政府於2023年8月1日推出「青年安心成家購屋優惠貸款精進方案」(新青安)。由於新青安大幅降低購屋成本，因此社群媒體時常出現租屋不如買屋的報導，令人不禁關注此政策對租屋市場可能帶來的影響。本文利用新青安實施前後台北市、新北市、桃園市的預售屋買賣及房屋租賃實價登錄資料，並使用中斷時間序列模型分析不同預售屋每坪均價水準的行政區，每坪租金與租屋量在政策實施前後的變化。結果顯示，新青安的實施導致每坪租金下跌2.86%。在預售屋每坪均價低於30萬元的行政區，每坪租金跌幅達到3.47%，租屋量在新青安實施後每月平均下降2.16%。至於預售屋每坪均價在60萬元以上的行政區，每坪租金與租屋量則無顯著變化。

To alleviate the housing burden on young people, the government officially launched the "Enhanced Preferential Housing Loan Program for Youth" (New Ching-An) on August 1, 2023. With New Ching-An substantially reducing the cost of homeownership, discussions on social media frequently emphasize the advantages of buying over renting. This naturally raises concerns about the potential impact of this policy on the rental market. This study utilizes actual transaction data on pre-sale housing and housing rentals in Taipei City, New Taipei City, and Taoyuan City before and after the implementation of New Ching-An. An interrupted time series model is applied to analyze the changes in rental prices per ping and rental volume across districts with different levels of average price per ping for pre-sale housing. The results show that the implementation of New Ching-An led to a 2.86% decrease in rental price per ping. In districts where the average price per ping of pre-sale housing is below NT$300,000, the rental price per ping decreased by 3.47% and rental volume dropped by 2.16% per month on average after the policy started. In contrast, in districts where the average price per ping of pre-sale housing exceeds NT$600,000, there was no significant changes in the rental prices per ping and rental volume.