水泥業淨零轉型下之溫室氣體減量分析

Abstract

全球氣候變遷的影響，水泥業在全球淨零轉型下的溫室氣體減量勢在必行，惟我國水泥產業近年來面臨內需下降、進口競爭加劇及碳排放壓力等挑戰，使水泥業在減碳路徑遇到了些困難，本研究以問題釐清、問題分析及解決方案3個步驟逐步分析水泥業正在面臨的問題及政府如何推動相關政策確保水泥持續永續經營。 本研究利用減碳成本分析模型，以國際上減碳技術節能潛力及維運、投資成本計算參考依據，製作各項成熟減碳技術成本與節能潛力分析圖，在碳費每公噸CO2計新臺幣300元條件下即有可採行具有投資效益之減碳措施，以提高生質燃料之二氧化碳減量潛力為最高，另以問卷調查方法確認以前述模型計算具有投資效益之減碳措施在我國水泥業之採用情形，發現調查結果與模型評估結果相近，另問卷調查結果比較各國對水泥業的減排目標及政策工具與我國之差異性，顯示我國水泥業減碳進程相對落後，提供短、中、長期減決方案促使水泥業積極減碳。 另以簡單經濟學模型分析國際上常見減碳政策作法包含碳稅（費）及總量管制排放交易制度，因總量管制排放交易制度有相對高的碳定價格，對於減碳措施的投入具有相對誘因，也反映碳的「名目價格」的提升也足以讓企業在決策時改變投資方向，轉向低碳或再生能源，並產生長期且不可逆的減碳效果，但該名目價格是否足夠誘因推動減碳措施，建議應先調查我國目前採取減碳措施及減碳成本，以提供最具減碳誘因之碳定價格，促使水泥業持續永續經營。

Global climate change has made greenhouse gas reduction in the cement industry imperative under the global net-zero transition. However, in recent years, Taiwan's cement industry has faced challenges such as declining domestic demand, intensified import competition, and increasing pressure from carbon emissions, making the path to decarbonization difficult. This study analyzes the issues currently faced by the cement industry and how the government can promote relevant policies to ensure the industry's sustainable operation, following three steps: problem clarification, problem analysis, and solution development. This study employs a carbon reduction cost analysis model, referencing the international energy-saving potential of carbon reduction technologies as well as their operation, maintenance, and investment costs. It produces a cost and energy-saving potential analysis chart for various mature carbon reduction technologies. Under the condition of a carbon fee set at NT$300 per metric ton of CO2, there are carbon reduction measures with investment benefits that can be adopted, with increasing the use of biomass fuel offering the highest CO2 reduction potential. Furthermore, a questionnaire survey was conducted to confirm the adoption of these investment-beneficial carbon reduction measures in Taiwan’s cement industry, as calculated by the aforementioned model. The survey results were found to be consistent with the model evaluation. The questionnaire also compared the emission reduction targets and policy tools for the cement industry in various countries with those in Taiwan, revealing that Taiwan’s cement industry is relatively lagging in carbon reduction progress. The study offers short-, medium-, and long-term solutions to encourage the cement industry to actively reduce carbon emissions. Furthermore, using a simple economic model, this study analyzes common international carbon reduction policies, including carbon taxes (fees) and cap-and-trade emission trading systems. Since cap-and-trade systems generally result in relatively high carbon prices, they provide stronger incentives for investment in carbon reduction measures. This also demonstrates that an increase in the “nominal price” of carbon alone can be sufficient to shift corporate investment decisions toward low-carbon or renewable energy options, leading to long-term and irreversible carbon reduction effects. However, whether this nominal price is sufficient to effectively incentivize carbon reduction measures should first be evaluated by investigating the current carbon reduction actions and costs in Taiwan. This would help determine the most effective carbon pricing level to incentivize decarbonization and promote the sustainable development of the cement industry.