台灣電路板產業發展的外部因素：美國對經貿的安全外部性態度轉變

Abstract

台灣電路板產業自1969年美商來台設廠起步，歷經多年發展，至2024年已成為台灣第二大的電子零組件產業 (僅次於半導體)，且長年位居全球領先地位 (2010年至2023年海內外總產值全球第一)。2018年以來，美中戰略競爭引發全球製造業重組，除了墨西哥與印度等發展中國家積極爭取從中國外移的產能外，美國與日本等先進國家亦積極推動高階電路板製造回流。在此背景下，深入探討台灣電路板產業的崛起歷程極具意義。 過往對於產業發展的研究，多從國家層面的產業政策或全球價值鏈的角度切入，強調國家或跨國企業的主導性。然而，透過檢視台灣電路板產業的發展歷程，可發現這些因素僅為中介變數，其背後真正關鍵在於美國如何認知經貿過程所帶來的「安全外部性」。因為美國政府不僅掌控市場准入條件，還能透過國際機制影響他國。因此，本研究將二戰後美國對外經貿政策的轉變分為「美蘇冷戰」、「後冷戰」與「美中戰略競爭」三個時期，分別探討美國如何基於安全外部性的考量調整對外政策，進而影響美商跨國企業的全球價值鏈布局，以及台灣與中國的產業政策，最終形塑了台灣電路板產業的發展軌跡。 此外，本研究亦系統性地整理了台灣電路板產業的發展歷程，完整回顧產業如何從無到有，並解析產業如何抓住時代機遇迅速壯大。面對美中戰略競爭的新局勢，2022年之後，台商電路板企業大舉前往東南亞投資布局。本研究亦希望透過歷史經驗與理論上的分析，為產業未來發展提供具體建議。

The Taiwan printed circuit board (PCB) industry began in 1969 with the establishment of factories by American companies in Taiwan. After decades of development, by 2024, it has grown to become Taiwan's second-largest electronic component industry (surpassed only by semiconductors) and has long maintained a leading global position (ranking first in total domestic and overseas production value from 2010 to 2023). Since 2018, the strategic competition between the United States and China has triggered a restructuring of global manufacturing. Developing countries such as Mexico and India have actively sought to attract production capacity shifting away from China, while advanced nations like the United States and Japan have pushed for the reshoring of high-end PCB manufacturing. Against this backdrop, examining the rise of Taiwan's PCB industry is particularly meaningful. Previous studies on industrial development have typically approached the subject from the perspectives of national industrial policies or global value chains, emphasizing the dominant roles of states or multinational corporations. However, an examination of the development trajectory of Taiwan's PCB industry reveals that these factors are merely intermediary variables. The true key lies in how the United States perceives the "security externalities" arising from economic and trade processes. This is because the U.S. government not only controls market access conditions but also influences other countries through international institutions. Therefore, this research categorizes the evolution of U.S. foreign economic policy since World War II into three distinct periods: the "Cold War era," the "Post-Cold War era," and the "U.S.-China strategic competition era." It analyzes how U.S. policy shifts, guided by considerations of security externalities, have indirectly influenced the global value chain strategies of American multinational corporations, as well as industrial policies in Taiwan and China, ultimately shaping the trajectory of Taiwan's PCB industry. Additionally, this study systematically reviews the development of Taiwan's PCB industry, comprehensively tracing its growth from inception to its rapid expansion driven by timely opportunities. Facing new dynamics created by U.S.-China competition, Taiwanese PCB firms have significantly expanded investments into Southeast Asia since 2022. This study aims to leverage historical insights and theoretical analysis to provide actionable recommendations for the industry's future development.