經濟投票理論與台灣選舉：2008-2024年的實證分析

Abstract

自1996年台灣首次進行總統直接民選以來，統獨立場、國家認同以及族群意識等社會分歧成為影響選舉的重要政治議題。然而，隨著台灣民主體制的深化，執政者的治理表現，特別是經濟，對選民投票傾向的影響力逐漸增強。為探索經濟因素近年來在台灣投票決策上扮演的角色，本文以「經濟投票理論」為框架，探討台灣的經濟表現與選舉結果之間的關聯性。該理論主張，選民會基於對執政黨經濟治理的評估，包括回顧性和前瞻性，做出投票決策，並可能懲罰經濟表現不佳的執政黨，同時選民的經濟評估也傾向整體表現，而非個人經濟狀況。本研究利用2008年至2024年間的TEDS選舉與調查數據，發現以下結果：經濟發展被選民認為是國家最重要的議題，選民對經濟表現的認知與其政黨認同傾向及實際經濟數據有顯著相關性，選民對於執政黨經濟治理表現的評估與其投票選擇有關聯性。

Since the first direct presidential election was held in Taiwan in 1996, a milestone in Taiwan’s democratic transition, issues related to ethnic sentiment, national identity, and the relations with China, have been placed high on the political agenda in the elections that ensue. Nevertheless, following the consolidation of democracy, issues concerning the government’s ruling capability, the economy in particular, have increased their weights in influencing the voters’ decisions. In order to explore the extent to which the economic factors have played in Taiwan’s elections, I am undertaking the study, based on the theoretical framework of economic voting and the survey data from 2008 to 2024 collected by Taiwan Elections and Democracy Study (TEDS), to examine the association between the electoral outcomes and voters’ perception of the economic performance. The economic voting theory argues that voters tend to “punish” the ruling party when the economy becomes worse. It also argues that voters tend to be sociotropic than egotropic in determining their voting choices, while engaging in retrospective and prospective evaluations of the government’s economic performance. The result of this empirical study indicates an increasingly significant association between economic voting and elections in Taiwan, and that voters’ economic perceptions are significantly linked with their party identifications.