在亞洲保持平衡？亞洲當代國際關係的新現實主義分析

Abstract

The rise of China, a transformative event in the strategic landscape, has profoundly impacted International Relations in Asia. This study examines how specific East and Southeast Asian countries have responded in the maritime domain, focusing on whether Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea, the Philippines, and Vietnam are balancing against China. The scholarly debate on this topic has centered around differing views on the presence or absence of balancing, often critiqued through cultural factors. Using a multi-case study framework grounded in neorealism, this research analyzes internal balancing through military modernization and external balancing through military cooperation from 2014 to 2024. The findings indicate that balancing is occurring, as evidenced by the substantial increase in military spending, modernization, and bilateral cooperation among the six countries. However, formal alliances have yet to materialize. All states have significantly upgraded their military capabilities, focusing on advanced missiles, surface platforms, and fighter jets. While substantial evidence of balancing exists, some cases also show behaviors interpreted as hedging rather than clear-cut balancing.

The rise of China, a transformative event in the strategic landscape, has profoundly impacted International Relations in Asia. This study examines how specific East and Southeast Asian countries have responded in the maritime domain, focusing on whether Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea, the Philippines, and Vietnam are balancing against China. The scholarly debate on this topic has centered around differing views on the presence or absence of balancing, often critiqued through cultural factors. Using a multi-case study framework grounded in neorealism, this research analyzes internal balancing through military modernization and external balancing through military cooperation from 2014 to 2024. The findings indicate that balancing is occurring, as evidenced by the substantial increase in military spending, modernization, and bilateral cooperation among the six countries. However, formal alliances have yet to materialize. All states have significantly upgraded their military capabilities, focusing on advanced missiles, surface platforms, and fighter jets. While substantial evidence of balancing exists, some cases also show behaviors interpreted as hedging rather than clear-cut balancing.