台灣離岸風場投資可行性之研究 - 以海鼎二風場為例

Abstract

本研究以海鼎二海上風力發電場為案例，深入分析其收入和成本結構，並檢視其現金流量及相關的股東報酬率。在收入和風場資本支出方面，我們引用了國內外相關期刊論文以及各國政府針對風電的研究報告，提供讀者寶貴的參考資料。 根據文獻估算，海鼎二風場的總資本支出和開發支出預計將達到 1140 億新台幣。預期股權投資報酬率為 8.34％，高於股東要求的 8.10％報酬率。淨現值為正值，約為 6 億 1 千 1 百萬新台幣，符合可投資的標準。 在收入方面，本研究假設風場初始容量因數為 45％，並預計每年隨著設備老化而減少約 0.64％。由於海鼎二風場簽署的企業購售電合約（CPPA）缺乏相關市場數據，因此根據目前市場情況和與業內專家的訪談，我們假設海鼎二的 CPPA 價格為每度電 5.5 新台幣。 此外，本研究在考慮基本假設不變的情況下，分析了融資環境變化和企業購售電合約金額對融資計劃的影響。這些分析結果可供後續相關機構人員參考。

This study focuses on the Hai Ding Offshore Wind Farm as a case study, delving into its revenue and cost structures, and examining its cash flows and associated shareholder returns. Parameters related to revenue and capital expenditures for the wind farm are cited from relevant domestic and international journal articles, as well as research reports from various governments regarding wind power, providing readers with valuable references for case studies. Based on literature estimates, the total capital and development expenditures for the Hai Ding Er Wind Farm are projected to reach NT$114 billion. The expected equity investment return rate is estimated at 8.34%, surpassing the shareholder's required return rate of 8.10%. The net present value is positive, approximately NT$610 million, meeting the investment threshold. Regarding revenue, this study assumes an initial capacity factor of 45% for the wind farm, with electricity generation weakening annually due to equipment aging at a rate of approximately 0.64%. As there are no relevant market data for the Corporate Power Purchase Agreement (CPPA) signed by the Hai Ding Er Wind Farm, the CPPA price is assumed to be NT$5.5 per kilowatt-hour based on current market conditions and interviews with industry experts. Additionally, this study analyzes the impact of changes in financing conditions and CPPA amounts on the financing plan while keeping the basic assumptions unchanged. These findings serve as a reference for relevant stakeholders in subsequent discussion