總體審慎措施對臺灣房價的影響

Abstract

台灣的房地產市場在過去十年中顯著增長，從信義房價指數中可以看出2010年至2022年間平均房價成長超過200%。這一快速的增長對首購族有著艱鉅的挑戰。 本研究採用了分量回歸分析信用管制措施、房貸成數管制(Loan-to-Value)政策以及房地合一稅對房價不同分位數的影響。結果顯示，LTV政策有效地降低了從高分位數到低分位數的房價，主要影響高價位住宅和空屋率較高的地區。然而，特定地區的成數管制與針對公司購置住宅成數管制則不太顯著。儘管各城市之間的結果有所不同，房地合一稅政策在降低各個分位數的房價上多為顯著有效。 總結來說，房貸成數管制和房地合一稅政策在像台北市這樣的已發展的城市中能更有效的影響房價。這些研究結果為台灣的房地產市場提供了許多有價值的見解，並向政府提出了有效調控房價的政策建議。

The housing market in Taiwan has seen significant growth over the last decade, as evidenced by the Xinyi housing price index, which indicates a over 200% increase in average housing prices from 2010 to 2022. This surge poses challenges for first-time homebuyers. This study takes a unique approach by employing quantile regression to analyze the impact of selective credit controls, the loan-to-value (LTV) policy, and house and land transaction income tax on different quantiles of housing prices. The results highlight that LTV policies effectively reduce housing prices from higher quantiles to lower quantiles, primarily impacting higher-priced homes and areas with high housing inventory. However, the impact is less significant in specific districts and for companies in most cities. On the other hand, the house and land transaction income tax policy shows effectiveness in lowering housing prices across various quantiles, although results vary between cities. In conclusion, the LTV and tax policies show greater effectiveness in developed cities like Taipei City. These findings provide valuable insights into the housing market dynamics in Taiwan and offer recommendations for policymakers on how to effectively regulate housing prices through these policies.