緬甸氣候變遷背景下的水稻適宜性分析

Abstract

這項研究深入探討了氣候變遷對緬甸稻米適宜性和產量的影響，採用了代表性濃度路徑（Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs）2.6和8.5。研究利用生態位模型（MaxEnt軟體）評估了緬甸四個農業氣候區域在三個未來時期（2024-2050、2051-2076、2077-2099）的稻米適宜性，結果顯示在不同氣候情境下，稻米種植潛力存在顯著的區域變異。在RCP 2.6的情境下，適度的升溫和穩定的降水模式普遍支持稻米種植的有利條件。相反，RCP 8.5預測近期將出現顯著升溫及極端高溫事件，降水模式則更為局部化，對中部和南部緬甸等地區造成影響。稻米適宜性分析指出，雖然RCP 2.6傾向於支持稻米種植，但RCP 8.5則帶來了挑戰與意外機遇。具體而言，三角洲地區的適宜性有所改善，中部乾燥區展現出一定的韌性，而沿海區域則需有效的水資源管理，丘陵和山區則面臨複雜的結果。 根據2018-2019年的歷史稻米生產數據，模擬適宜性分數以驗證預測，結果顯示三角洲地區、中部乾燥區的薩卡因省和丘陵區的掸邦預計將維持或超過過去的生產力，而沿海區域在RCP 8.5下的適宜性則顯得不太穩定。研究還針對每個農業氣候區域提出了調整稻米種植日曆的建議，以作為確保緬甸未來稻米生產力的戰略適應措施。

This study examines the impact of climate change on rice suitability and yield in Myanmar using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. By applying the Ecological Niche Model through MaxEnt software, the research assessed rice suitability across four agro-climatic zones of Myanmar covering for three future periods (2024-2050, 2051-2076, 2077-2099). Findings reveal significant regional variations in rice cultivation potential under different climate scenarios. Under RCP 2.6, moderate warming and stable precipitation patterns generally support favorable conditions for rice cultivation. Conversely, RCP 8.5 forecasts substantial warming and increased extreme temperature events in the near term, with more localized precipitation patterns impacting regions such as Central and Southern Myanmar. The rice suitability analysis showed that while RCP 2.6 tends to support rice cultivation, RCP 8.5 presents both challenges and unexpected opportunities. Specifically, the Delta Region benefits from improved suitability, the Central Dry Zone shows resilience, the Coastal Zone requires effective water management, and the Hilly and Mountainous Regions face complex outcomes. Historic rice production data (2018-2019) were simulated according to the suitability scores to validate projections, indicating that while the Delta Region and Sagaing Division in the Central Dry Zone and Shan State in the Hilly Zone are expected to maintain or exceed past productivity, the Coastal Zone's suitability is less stable under RCP 8.5. The study also proposes adjusted rice crop calendars for each agro-climatic zone as a strategic adaptation measure to ensure future rice productivity in Myanmar.