市場波動下台灣投資者對新資訊的反應

Abstract

本研究探討了台灣股市中投資者在不同市場不確定性條件下對正負面盈餘資訊的反應。研究結果顯示，市場不確定性顯著影響投資者行為，存在非對稱性反應。在市場不確定性上升時，投資者對負面消息的反應更為強烈，而在高不確定性環境中，投資者對正面消息的反應則更積極。此外，在極高和極低不確定性市場中，投資者對正負面消息的反應無顯著差異。此一現象偏離傳統觀點，認為高市場動盪將使投資人對負面消息反應更為劇烈。該非對稱反應模式或許與特定市場心理狀態及羊群行為有關，反映出投資人在極端市況下的複雜心理動態。本研究結果為理解投資者行為提供了新的視角，並強調了在投資決策中考慮市場情緒和不確定性的重要性，為制定針對股票投資人的溝通策略及市場預測工具奠定實證基礎。

This study aims to investigate how investors in the Taiwan stock market react to positive and negative information under different levels of market uncertainty. Our findings reveal that market uncertainty significantly influences investor behavior, exhibiting an asymmetric response. When market uncertainty increases, investors react more strongly to negative news, whereas in high uncertainty environments, their response to positive news is more vigorous. Additionally, in markets with extreme high and low uncertainty, there is no significant difference in investor reactions to positive and negative news. This finding deviates from the traditional view that high market volatility intensifies reactions to negative news. The asymmetric response pattern may be related to specific market psychological states and herd behavior, reflecting the complex psychological dynamics of investors in extreme market conditions. The findings of this study provide a new perspective for understanding investor behavior and emphasize the importance of considering market sentiment and uncertainty in investment decisions. These results lay an empirical foundation for developing communication strategies and market forecasting tools tailored to stock investors.