兩岸經貿交流與重分配政策的支出財源

Abstract

本文探討了兩岸經貿交流如何影響臺灣民眾對於支應社會福利政策的看法。透過問卷調查實驗和聯合分析法。本文假設自身或其家庭成員曾與中國大陸有任何經貿往來的受試者，偏好下滲經濟學的觀點。他們可能會傾向支持透過企業減稅或擴大兩岸經貿交流以擴大稅基的觀點來支應社會福利政策的支出。相反地，自身或其家庭成員未曾與中國大陸有任何經貿往來的受試者，則可能偏好公平分配的觀點，並傾向支持以改革軍公教年金或提高前 5% 富人資本利得稅來支應社會福利政策。研究結果顯示，臺灣民眾對於支應社會福利政策的看法存在多樣性，與中國大陸有經貿往來的受試者並未顯著支持下滲經濟學的觀點；相反地，與中國大陸沒有經貿往來的受試者中，一部分受試者（特別是對中國大陸未來經濟持樂觀預期、自認收入足夠、或政黨認同為藍營者）支持下滲經濟學和擴大兩岸經貿交流以擴大稅基的政策。無論是否與中國大陸有經貿往來，受試者普遍支持公平分配觀點，特別是提高前 5% 富人資本利得稅以支應社會福利政策的選項。

This study explores how Cross-Strait economic interactions influence Taiwanese people’s views on funding social welfare policies. Using a survey experiment and conjoint analysis, this paper hypothesizes that respondents or their family members with any economic exchanges with mainland China favor the trickle-down economics perspective. They may tend to support funding social welfare policies through corporate tax cuts or expanding Cross-Strait economic exchanges to broaden the tax base. Conversely, respondents or their family members without any economic exchanges with mainland China may prefer the equitable distribution perspective and tend to support funding social welfare policies through pension reforms for civil servants or raising the capital gains tax on the wealthiest 5%. The results show that Taiwanese people’s views on funding social welfare policies are diverse. Respondents with economic exchanges with mainland China do not significantly support the trickle-down economics perspective. Conversely, among respondents without economic exchanges with mainland China, some (especially those optimistic about mainland China's future economic performance, self-assessed as having sufficient income, or identifying with the Blue camp) support trickle-down economics and expanding Cross-Strait economic exchanges to broaden the tax base. Regardless of whether respondents have economic exchanges with mainland China, they generally support the equitable distribution perspective, particularly the option of raising the capital gains tax on the wealthiest 5% to fund social welfare policies.