史瓦帝尼王國農產品出口對經濟增長的影響

Abstract

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This study examined the impact of agricultural exports (AGRX) on economic growth (RGDP) in Eswatini over the period from 1972 to 2022. The ARDL framework was employed to estimate the relationship between agricultural exports and real gross domestic product (RGDP) by controlling for Inflation (INFL), Gross Capital Formation (GCF), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and Exchange Rate (EXC). The findings revealed no long-term cointegration, indicating that agricultural exports did not have a sustained long-term effect on economic growth. However, short-term analysis showed that past economic performance positively influenced current growth, while Gross Capital Formation negatively correlated with economic growth, possibly due to inefficient investments. The exchange rate had an immediate negative effect but a positive lagged impact, reflecting initial economic contraction followed by growth from currency depreciation. These results challenged the export-led growth hypothesis in Eswatini's agricultural sector, emphasizing the need for improved infrastructure, market access, R&D, capital formation, exchange rate stability, foreign direct investment, and human capital development.