直轄市中古屋價格供給面與需求面因素之探討

Abstract

本文探討民國96年至110年臺北市、新北市、桃園市、臺中市、臺南市、高雄市等六個直轄市供給面與需求面因素對中古房屋價格之影響，應用普通最小平方法（OLS）執行迴歸分析。 實證結果顯示，主要影響六都中古屋房價的供給面變數有：營造工程物價指數（桃園市、高雄市呈現顯著正相關）、新建住宅數量（臺北市、新北市、臺南市、高雄市呈現顯著正相關）、住宅存量（桃園市、臺南市呈現顯著正相關）、平均每筆建築貸款核貸金額（臺中市呈現顯著正相關）、建築貸款餘額（桃園市呈現顯著正相關）、房地合一2.0稅制（新北市、桃園市、臺南市呈現顯著正相關）；而主要影響六都中古屋房價的需求面變數有：購置住宅貸款平均年利率（臺北市、桃園市、高雄市呈現顯著正相關）、捷運數量（新北市、臺中市呈現顯著正相關）、失業率（臺北市、高雄市呈現顯著正相關）、房屋現值增減率（新北市、臺南市呈現顯著正相關）、都市更新件數（新北市、臺南市、高雄市呈現顯著正相關）、小家庭數（高雄市呈現顯著正相關）。

This study investigates the influence of supply and demand factors on the prices of second-hand houses in six municipalities, in Taiwan from 2007 to 2021. The OLS method is applied to estimate.

The empirical results show that the supply-side variables, that are significantly positively correlated the prices of second-hand houses in the six municipalities, are as follows: construction engineering price index in Taoyuan City and Kaohsiung City, the quantity of new residential buildings in Taipei City, New Taipei City, Tainan City, and Kaohsiung City, housing stock in Taoyuan City and Tainan City, the average approved amount of building loans per case in Taichung City, the remaining balance of construction loans in Taoyuan City, and integrated housing and land development 2.0 policy in New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, and Tainan City.

In addition, the demand variables that significantly positively affect the prices of second-hand houses in the six municipalities are as follows: the average annual interest rate of home purchase loans in Taipei City, Taoyuan City, and Kaohsiung City, the quantity of MRT (Mass Rapid Transit) stations in New Taipei City and Taichung City, the unemployment rate in Taipei City and Kaohsiung City, the rate of current value appreciation or depreciation of houses in New Taipei City and Tainan City, the number of urban renewal cases in New Taipei City, Tainan City, and Kaohsiung City, and the number of small families in Kaohsiung City.