未來五年全球半導體產業發展策略：以台積電為例

Abstract

因為疫情期間之影響數位化成為全球重要的議題，造成全球對於半導體之需求增加。在後疫情世代中，面臨出現半導體庫存量遽增，就如同以前Y2K的時候，市場衰退約三年。但在未來五年內，半導體產業還是全球最關注之產業，在未來如何去以應對地緣政治變化、擴展生態圈、加強ESG（環境、社會和治理）措施，並迎接未來的機會和挑戰都是很重要的議題。大家都已知道全球受到地緣政治的影響，這將會持續會影響全球半導體供應鏈之穩定性，產業的領導者都需要謹慎去面對貿易關稅、出口管制和地緣政治風險，同時探索多地點製造以增加供應鏈韌性，去面對這樣的挑戰與變化，在未來因應制定其策略發展。 我們可以未來5年全球市場的需求產業面來分析，例如：新興技術之應用、人工智慧、物聯網、5G通信、車用電子與數字醫療…等，這都將持續驅動全球半導體需求的增長，可以找尋其企業未來長期發展之機會。 半導體產業發展至今，從最早以前的半導體產業鏈到現在的半導體生態圈，其過程之發展與變化非常重要，我們可從台積電為例，來分析其生態系之重要性與關聯性，並探討未來5年其半導體產業與台積電將會面臨之機會與挑戰。 總之，全球半導體產業未來五年的發展策略將綜合考慮、全球產業之變化與增長、地緣政治變化、擴展生態圈、當地人才培養與加強未來ESG之措施，充分把握其未來之機會，同時克服其威脅與挑戰，以保持企業之競爭力和未來可持續發展之能力。

Due to the impact of the pandemic, digitization has become a crucial global topic, leading to an increased demand for semiconductors worldwide. In the post-pandemic era, there's a notable surge in semiconductor inventory, reminiscent of the Y2K period, resulting in a market decline of approximately three years. However, within the next five years, the semiconductor industry remains one of the most scrutinized sectors globally. Addressing geopolitical shifts, expanding ecosystems, enhancing ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) measures, and embracing future opportunities and challenges are all pivotal concerns for the industry. It's well-known that global geopolitics exert an enduring influence, impacting the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain. Industry leaders need to prudently navigate trade tariffs, export controls, and geopolitical risks, while also exploring multi-location manufacturing to bolster supply chain resilience. Adapting to such challenges and changes and formulating corresponding strategic developments are vital in the future landscape. Analyzing the industry landscape in terms of global market demand over the next five years could include aspects such as the applications of emerging technologies, artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, 5G communication, automotive electronics, and digital healthcare. These factors will continue driving the growth of global semiconductor demand and offer insights into long-term opportunities for enterprises. From the inception of the semiconductor industry to its current ecosystem, its evolution and transformation have been crucial. Taking TSMC as an example, we can analyze the significance and interconnections of its ecosystem and discuss the opportunities and challenges that TSMC and the semiconductor industry will encounter over the next five years. In summary, the development strategy for the global semiconductor industry in the next five years will encompass a comprehensive consideration of global industry shifts and growth, geopolitical changes, ecosystem expansion, local talent cultivation, and strengthening future ESG measures. This approach aims to fully grasp future opportunities, while simultaneously overcoming threats and challenges, in order to maintain competitiveness and ensure sustainable development capabilities for enterprises in the future.