政見與韓流的起落：高雄市三次的選舉空間分析2018-2020

Abstract

本研究探討韓國瑜在高雄市的市長選舉、總統選舉、罷免投票政見因素對選舉結果造成的影響。論文採取空間分析的研究方法，以高雄市891個里作為分析單位，依變數為韓國瑜的獲票率及獲票變化率，自變數整理自韓國瑜總統選舉時的主要政見，計有農業生產、青年就業、醫療觀光、飯店觀光、環境污染、愛家公投六項，控制變數為經社背景、人口、族群等變數。市長與總統獲票變化率，計算自為本次選舉與四年前同類型選舉之差，罷免投票變化率則以罷免票與市長獲票為計算基準。如此建立三次選舉的空間廻歸模型，藉以觀察政見因素的不同影響。 研究發現政見的影響有限。市長選舉，愛家公投、青年就業兩個政見對韓國瑜的獲票增加有貢獻，污染議題則為負向，亦即污染愈多，與前次選舉相較，更加反對韓國瑜，這與研究假設不符，其他政見變數則不顯著。隨後的總統選舉中，所有的政見均不顯著，顯示政見對韓國瑜的獲票增加沒有影響，亦即與四年前總統選舉的基本盤一致。在罷免投票中，愛家公投與青年選票對獲票變化的影響由正轉負，顯示投票轉向不再支持；污染議題則仍為負向，表示污染嚴重的地區，比市長選舉時，更加反對韓國瑜。本研究發現，這些受到政見影響的選民，在不同選舉中對韓國瑜的支持並不穩定，市長選舉韓確能帶動風潮，特別是年輕人與愛家團體，但在隨後的總統、罷免選舉中，這兩個因素失效，又重回基本盤，其他政見則不顯著。本研究以地區為分析單位，解釋變數是受政見影響的地區的表現，然而政見的影響可能跨越地區，一個非農業區也可能關心農業政策，這是本研究無法處理的限制。

This study of Kaohsiung City election is from 2018 to 2020.This paper argues that Han's rise was grounded in his platform. His platform earned him attention, and much of what he had to say while observing the perilous state of the economy in Kaohsiung has echoed with the voting civic. In Kaohsiung, longtime DPP stronghold, Han promised to revitalize what he called a stagnant economy. Han defeated several rivals to win the mayoral election. The purpose of this study was to analyze the percentage of votes Han Kuo-yu obtained. This study assumed that the votes Han Kuo-yu won were from Kuomintang's (KMT) traditional stronghold and those he newly obtained. Han Kuo-yu shoot from political obscurity to become the mayor of Kaohsiung, the KMT presidential candidate and and the subject of a recall vote. The abnormal phenomenon called “Han Kuo-yu phenomenon” was worth noticing. This study used spatial analysis setting 891 villages in Kaohsiung city as analysis units, anaiyzing different aspects like platforms, slogans, local factions, population structure, socio-economic background and spatial factors. Besides, with the traditional and spatial regression models, combined the voting can be explained more thoroughly. The study found that the platform influenced Han Kuo-yu's percentage of votes: youth issues and three referendum questions on same-sex marriage. Han's platform played a relevant role in an unlikely victory in Kaohsiung; however, we can not a conclusion that hans electoral victory should be attributed to his platform. Obviously, as the enthusiasm of these voters receded, the Han Kuo-yu phenomenon disappeared.