新成屋與中古屋價格關聯之研究-以臺北市與新北市為例

Abstract

本研究以臺北市與新北市作為研究對象，以共整合檢定和單根檢定模型為研究方法；立基於「房價指數」的理論基礎，嘗試了解臺北市與新北市新成屋與中古屋價格趨勢對其房價的影響，同時考量：五大行庫平均房貸利率、M2貨幣供給額、消費者物價指數、經濟成長率、租金指數、營造工程物價指數等變數影響。研究結果發現，臺北市與新北市的中古屋，當前一期出現上揚時，會使得當期的房價指數上升；臺北市新成屋(可能成交之預售屋)，臺北市國泰房地產指數不僅受到前一期指數的正向影響，常數項及前一期的隨機誤差項會對於當期臺北市國泰房地產指數產生負面的影響；隨著時間增加，臺北市新成屋的房價指數不會逐步增加，而是走向一個均衡的數值。新北市新成屋(可能成交之預售屋)，常數項並不會影響新北市國泰房地產指數，前一期新北市國泰房地產指數所產生的正面影響，以及前一期的隨機誤差項所產生的負面影響，隨著時間增加，新北市新成屋的房價指數會逐漸走向一個均衡值。

This study focuses on Taipei City and New Taipei City, utilizing cointegration tests and unit root tests as research methods. Based on the theoretical foundation of the "housing price index," the study attempts to understand the impact of trends in the prices of Newly built house and Existing House in Taipei City and New Taipei City on their respective housing prices. Simultaneously, the study considers variables such as the average mortgage interest rates of the five major banks, M2 money supply, consumer price index, economic growth rate, rental index, and construction project price index. The research findings indicate that for Existing House in Taipei City and New Taipei City, an upward trend in the previous period leads to an increase in the current period's housing price index. Concerning Newly built house in Taipei City (potentially pre-sold Newly built house), the Cathay Real Estate Index is not only positively influenced by the previous period's index but is also negatively affected by the constant term and the previous period's random error term. Over time, the housing price index for Newly built house in Taipei City does not steadily increase but tends towards an equilibrium value. For Newly built house in New Taipei City (potentially pre-sold Newly built house), the constant term does not affect the Cathay Real Estate Index in New Taipei City. The positive impact generated by the previous period's Cathay Real Estate Index in New Taipei City and the negative impact of the previous period's random error term lead the housing price index for Newly built house in New Taipei City to gradually approach an equilibrium value over time.