影響台灣退票率及拒絕往來率因素的實證研究

Abstract

本研究主要針對支票退票及拒絕往來情形做實證分析，選用台灣票據交換所2006～2022 年共 204 筆月資料，分別建立退票張數比率、退票金額比率及拒絕往來比率之多元迴歸模型，研究顯示： 1.本身的落後一期項，對退票張數比率、退票金額比率及拒絕往來比率皆具顯著正向影響，顯示支票退票及拒絕往來行為具有遞延性。 2.退票張數比率模型中，顯著的變數包括五大行庫週轉利率、消費者物價指數年增率和 2016 年 8 月虛擬變數，顯示利率及物價分別對退票張數造成正面及負面的影響。 3. 與退票張數比率模型相比，退票金額比率模型新增一項顯著變數：總戶數成長率，意即當支票使用戶數增加時，可能影響退票金額比率的上升。 4.在拒絕往來比率模型中，五大行庫週轉利率、本國銀行逾放比、貨幣總計數 M2年增率、商業本票淨買入成長率和遠期信用狀美元利率均呈現顯著的正向影響。

This study conducts empirical analysis on dishonored ratio and dishonored account rate, utilizing a dataset from the Taiwan Clearing House covering the period from 2006 to 2022, totaling 204 monthly observations. Multiple regression models are constructed to investigate the factors influencing dishonored number, dishonored amount and dishonored account. The empirical findings are as follows: 1. The first order lagged variable itself significantly and positively affects both dishonored number ratio, dishonored amount ratio, and dishonored account rate, indicating a deferred effect in dishonored check and refusal behavior. 2. In the regression model of dishonored number ratio, significant variables include the five major banks' base rate, Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual growth rate, and a dummy variable for August 2016. This implies that interest rates and inflation respectively have distinct positive and negative effects. 3. In comparison to the dishonored number ratio regression model, the dishonored amount ratio model introduces an additional significant variable: the growth rate of total accounts. This implies that an increase in the number of check accounts may impact an increase in dishonored amount ratio. 4. In the regression model of dishonored account rate, significant variables consist of the five major banks' base rate, NPL, M2 annual growth rate, commercial paper net purchase growth rate, and forward LC USD interest rate. The findings indicate that all significant variables positively influence dishonored account rate.