政黨傾向對生育決策的影響：臺灣總統選舉實證

Abstract

支持不同政黨的人們可能對於不同議題會有不同看法，並依照這些看法來做未來決策，比方說經濟狀況。這篇論文藉由事件分析法（event study）、合成控制（synthetic control），分析台灣2016、2020年兩屆總統大選，發現黨派生育效果（partisan fertility effect），獲勝的選民傾向生育。不過，在連任的2020年，效果並不明顯。2016年，估計的季節平均效果介於每千位女性提高0.048到0.132位小孩；2020年則為0.020。這三個數字分別佔平均的一般生育率（general fertility rate）1.27、3.93，與0.70%。

People with different partisan affiliations may hold contrasting opinions on various topics, such as the state of the economy, and make decisions based on their beliefs. By analyzing the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020, this paper uncovers the presence of partisan fertility effects. This is achieved by implementing the DID event study and synthetic control method. The findings suggest that individuals are more likely to conceive children following the election victory. However, when examining the re-election in 2020, the partisan effect becomes less evident. On average, the estimated quarter effects range from 0.048 to 0.132 per 1,000 women in 2016, and 0.020 in 2020. These represent 1.27%, 3.93%, and 0.70% of the average quarterly general fertility rate, respectively.