美國國會在台美關係中的角色：基於1999年至2021年間友台法案的分析

Abstract

中文摘要 本研究以 「府會關係」及「總統所屬政黨意識形態」建立四個美國國會通過友台法案數量分布的四個假設；並藉以分析美國國會在1999年1月起至2021年1月期間審議通過並且經由總統簽署生效的一系列「友台法案」數量分布。研究結果與假設一致：共和黨一致政府時期數量最多；民主黨一致政府時期數量最少；然而，民主黨分立時期數量次多；共和黨分立政府時期數量則次少。此一結果亦不受友台法案的類型為「安全」以及「經濟社會」而有所不同。整體而言，本研究顯示現實主義基於單一理性行為者預設來分析台美關係的不足：美國國會具有獨自促進台美關係中具有積極角色；然而，美國國會在對外關係中的積極角色也明顯受到府會關係與總統政黨意識形態的美國國內政治制度約束。

Abstract This study adopts “executive-legislative relationship” and “ideology of the presidential party” to derive four hypotheses with regards to the variation in the “pro-Taiwan legislative bills” passed in US Congress, and analyzes the distribution of “pro-Taiwan legislative bills” passed in US Congress from January 1999 to January 2021. The results are in line with the four hypotheses: Republican united government produced pro-Taiwan legislative bills most frequently, Democratic united government least frequently, Democratic divided government second most frequently, and Republican divided government second least frequently. The same pattern holds no matter these bills are for “security” and “socio-economic” purposes. Overall, this study demonstrates that the US Congress has its active role in facilitating US-Taiwan relations independently; and yet such an active role is apparently constrained by “executive-legislative relationship” and “ideology of the presidential party” in the US domestic politics.