民主與經濟：台灣語言政策的未來方向

Abstract

目前，台灣正站在兩種語言政策的十字路口。一種是《國家語言發展法》，旨在保護和促進20種國家語言，以進一步深化台灣的多元社會和多元民主。與之相對的是「2030雙語政策」，旨在強化台灣人的英語能力，以提升台灣的國際競爭力和經濟增長。在台灣，這兩種在過去幾年間同時開始推進的語言政策產生的矛盾引起了社會的關注，然而，到目前為止，從民主與經濟的兩個方面來分類語言政策動機的研究還很少；同樣地，實證分析語言政策與國家發展之間關係的研究也非常罕見。為了彌補這些研究缺口，本論文提出以下兩個重要研究問題： 1. 語言政策與國家發展之間存在怎樣的關係？ 2. 作為一個民主體制的台灣，應如何實行語言政策以提升其國際存在感？ 對於這兩大問題，透過理論與大量數據的實證分析具有深遠的意義。 在理論基礎上，本論文參考了Ager, D.E.的「語言政策動機的七種分類」以及Dahl, R.的「Polyarchy（多元民主）理論」，將台灣的語言政策動機大體上劃分為兩種：多語言政策有「民主發展的動機」，而雙語政策則可視為「資本主義發展的驅動力」。在這樣的基礎上，試圖預測這些政策將如何影響民主國家台灣的未來國家發展。在研究方法與實證的面向上，本論文將全球約160個國家分類為英語為官方語言與非官方語言的兩組，並針對過去20年的V-Dem指數與人均GDP數據進行回歸分析。為了更深入探討語言政策與國家發展的關聯性，我們還進一步將國家劃分為以下六組：英語為官方語言且經濟狀況較台灣富裕；英語為非官方語言且經濟狀況較台灣富裕；英語為官方語言，但經濟狀況較台灣差的國家；英語為非官方語言，但經濟狀況較台灣差的國家；曾為列強國的殖民地國家；以及在共產主義崩潰後分裂的國家。從以上對於共六種分組的分析中，我們得出了以下的重要發現： 1. 過去，英語雙語政策被認為無疑具有經濟利益，但現在這種認知已經被本論文的實證研究否定。反觀，多語言政策儘管曾被認為帶來高昂的成本、分裂與經濟停滯，但現在我們發現透過實現多元社會，它實際上能對經濟發展產生影響。 2. 很多將英語或法語作為官方語言的國家是舊殖民地，目前仍然貧窮。儘管英國統治超過一百年的新加坡在經濟上取得了發展，但其民主化指數遠低於台灣。新加坡在統計學上近似於「離群值」，因此不適合作為台灣國家發展的典範。 3. 本論文探討歐盟的複語言主義和歐洲共同語言參考架構（CEFR），也分析五眼聯盟（英國、美國、澳洲、紐西蘭、加拿大）以及日本、韓國、以色列等國的國家語言政策，認為台灣可以制定自身獨特的語言政策，以此展現其國際競爭力與存在感。 4. 在英語為官方語言的國家中，只有愛爾蘭和加拿大值得台灣參考。然而，這些國家不但被英語國家長期殖民，而且花了遠超過「四世代八十年」的時間才使英語在該國深入人心。台灣的雙語政策可能因其視野較短暫，其效果可能無法充分實現。 5. 透過數據分析，我們發現民主的發展對資本主義的發展有影響（R²=0.53; p<0.05; t>2; β= 31752）。進一步來說，隨著民主化的進程，這種影響的強度逐漸增強，數據對此模型顯示出高度的適應性（指數近似R²=0.96）。 整體來看，即使是相當民主化且經濟富裕的國家，也都在追求民主與經濟的座標上持續朝右上方（Top Right）發展，也就是走向Polyarchy的道路。這些高度發展的國家將多元社會視為資本，並不斷努力將其轉化為推動國家發展的力量。因此，由於台灣的民主與經濟也正處於與上述國家相同的發展階段之起點，面對未來的機會與挑戰，需要最佳化語言政策與國家發展。台灣是否採取多語政策，還是雙語政策，或者兩者都有，如何進行適當的資源分配？在考慮這些問題時，我們不僅要考慮經濟發展的驅動因素和「集中化」語言政策的簡單回報，也必須兼顧民主發展的動機和「包容與多元化」的語言政策帶來的複雜價值體系。透過本論文的發現，作者總結台灣必須珍惜歷史上存在20個國家語言的事實，並努力推動這些語言的永續發展，尤其是瀕危語言的復振，以實現「語言人權」與「複語言主義」的精神。透過這樣的過程，台灣可以提高其國際競爭力和存在感，成為深具擁有多元語言與價值特色的國家。

Currently, Taiwan stands at a crossroads of two language policies. One is the "National Languages Development Act", aimed at preserving and promoting 20 national languages, to further deepen Taiwan's multicultural society and pluralistic democracy. In contrast, the "Bilingual 2030 policy " aims to enhance the English proficiency of Taiwanese people, thereby boosting Taiwan's international competitiveness and economic growth. In Taiwan, these two language policies, initiated concurrently over the past few years, have brought about societal concerns due to their contradictory natures. However, up to now, studies classifying language policy motives from the dual perspectives of democracy and economy are scant, as are empirical studies analyzing the relationship between language policies and national development. To fill these research gaps, this paper proposes the following two crucial research questions: 1. What kind of relationship exists between language policies and national development? 2. As a democratic entity, how should Taiwan implement language policies to enhance its international presence? Deep insights can be gained through theoretical and empirical analysis of abundant data in addressing these two critical questions. Building on a theoretical foundation, this paper references Ager, D.E.'s "seven categories of language policy motivation" and Dahl, R.'s "Polyarchy theory", broadly classifying the motives behind Taiwan's language policies into two: the motivation for democratic development inherent in multilingual policies, and the driving force for capitalist development visible in bilingual policies. With this groundwork, we attempt to forecast how these policies might influence the future national development of democratic Taiwan. In terms of methodology and empirical evidence, the paper categorizes approximately 160 countries globally into two groups—those with English as an official language and those without—and conducts regression analyses on the V-Dem Index and GDP per capita data from the past 20 years. To delve deeper into the relationship between language policies and national development, we further split the countries into six groups: those where English is official and have a stronger economy than Taiwan; those where English is unofficial and yet have a stronger economy than Taiwan; those where English is official but have a weaker economy than Taiwan; those where English is unofficial but have a weaker economy than Taiwan; countries that were once colonies of great powers; and countries that broke up after the collapse of communism. From the analyses of these six groups, we draw the following significant findings: 1. In the past, English bilingual policies were unquestionably regarded as economically beneficial; however, this perception has been refuted by the empirical research of this paper. Conversely, multilingual policies, once deemed to bring high costs, division, and economic stagnation, we now find can impact economic development through the realization of a pluralistic society. 2. Many countries with English or French as their official languages are former colonies and remain impoverished. While Singapore, under British rule for over a hundred years, has seen economic advancement, its democratization index is significantly lower than Taiwan's. Statistically, Singapore is an outlier and thus not a suitable model for Taiwan's national development. 3. The paper examines the plurilingualism of the European Union and the Common European Framework of Reference for Languages (CEFR), and also analyzes the national language policies of the Five Eyes Alliance (UK, US, Australia, New Zealand, Canada), as well as Japan, South Korea, and Israel. It contends that Taiwan can establish its unique language policy, thereby demonstrating its international competitiveness and presence. 4. Among countries with English as an official language, only Ireland and Canada are worth Taiwan's consideration. However, these nations have not only been colonized by English-speaking countries for a long time but also spent far more than the "four generations or eighty years" to deeply ingrain English into the nation. The effects of Taiwan's bilingual policy may not fully manifest due to its short-term perspective. 5. Through data analysis, we find that the development of democracy impacts capitalist development (R²=0.53; p<0.05; t>2; β= 31752). Further, the strength of this influence intensifies with the progress of democratization, for which the data shows a high degree of adaptability to this model (Exponential Approximation R²=0.96).

Overall, even fairly democratized and economically affluent countries are persistently advancing towards the top-right quadrant in the pursuit of democracy and economy, a trajectory synonymous with the path towards Polyarchy. These highly developed nations regard pluralistic societies as assets, continuously striving to transform them into forces propelling national development. As Taiwan's democracy and economy are currently at a similar starting point of development as the aforementioned countries, the nation needs to optimize its language policies to meet future opportunities and challenges. Should Taiwan adopt multilingual or bilingual policies, or perhaps both? How should resources be allocated appropriately? In considering these questions, we must take into account not only the economic driving factors and the simple returns from "centralized" language policies, but also the motives for democratic development and the complex value system that "inclusive and diversified" language policies bring. Based on the findings of this paper, the author concludes that Taiwan must treasure the fact that it historically encompasses 20 national languages, and vigorously promote their sustainable development, particularly the revitalization of endangered languages, to realize the principles of "linguistic human rights" and "plurilingualism". Through such a process, Taiwan can enhance its international competitiveness and presence, and emerge as a nation richly characterized by diverse languages and values.