去中心化金融項目代幣價格與總鎖定價值的因果關係研究

Abstract

近年來，區塊鏈技術的普及與應用催生了去中心化金融 (DeFi) 的蓬勃發展，成為區塊鏈領域的主要趨勢之一。DeFi項目基於智能合約，提供無需中介機構參與的金融服務：如借貸、交易、流動性提供等，吸引眾多投資者和用戶的關注與參。由於DeFi市場動態複雜，市場監測指標成為投資者能夠直接判斷項目好壞的依據。本研究的主要目的是探討DeFi項目代幣價格與總鎖定價值之因果關係，以期提供投資人參考。本研究以五大公共區塊鏈 (Ethereum、BNB Chain、Polygon、Tron、Avalanche) 為基準，挑選其中20項以總鎖定價值為篩選標準之DeFi項目，探討（一）個別DeFi項目之間的總鎖定價值與代幣價格以及（二）公鏈之間的DeFi價格與總鎖定價值是否存在因果關係。研究顯示，個別DeFi中，88%項目的總鎖定價值對項目代幣價格存在因果關係，表示總鎖定價值可以成為監測代幣價格的重要指標。各公鏈個別DeFi項目的價格/總鎖定價值間的因果關係，可能受其項目性質，例如：治理權、業務性質（借貸、流動性質押、去中心化交易所）等影響。根據本研究實證發現，建議投資人宜深入了解DeFi項目的特性以及與其他項目間的價格或總鎖定價值關係，才能做出正確抉擇。

In recent years, blockchain technology has driven the flourishing development of Decentralized Finance (DeFi), becoming a major trend in the blockchain field. DeFi projects, utilizing smart contracts, offer intermediary-free financial services such as lending, trading, and liquidity provision, attracting numerous investors and users. To help investors, this study explores the causality between DeFi project token prices and total value locked, aiming to provide valuable insights. Based on five major public blockchains (Ethereum, BNB Chain, Polygon, Tron, Avalanche), 20 DeFi projects are selected using total value locked as a filtering criterion. The research investigates the causality between the total value locked and token prices within individual DeFi projects and across different blockchains. The findings indicate that 88% of individual DeFi projects show a causality between the total value locked and token price, making the total value locked an important monitoring indicator. The causality between token prices and total locked values may be influenced by project characteristics such as governance rights and operational nature. Investors are advised to understand the features of DeFi projects and their relationships with others for informed decision-making.