巴菲特對日投融資策略分析

Abstract

本論文透過討論巴菲特自 2020年入股日本五大商社，所採取的投融資策略，希望提供未來有意進入日本市場的國際投資人策略制定的建議。首先，本論文探討巴菲特的投資邏輯，在眾多國際板塊中，如何選中日本，以及如何鎖定五大商社作為投資標的，之後本論文研究巴菲特對日的融資策略，針對直接金融、間接金融與美金換匯進行分析，以利率交換的計算工具，比較巴菲特直接金融與日本國內同評級公司的間接金融的融資成本，並透過假設巴菲特投資區間於2022年末結束，計算直接金融與遠期匯率、外匯選擇權與換匯換利等三大換匯策略下的匯率避險策略之現金流，最後得出雖然巴菲特公司內部有過剩美金，儘管有可能透過上述三種方式規避匯兌風險，然美國國內存在美金固定報酬高、等待金融危機四伏的入市時機之機會成本，得出最終結論——巴菲特將始終依賴日本當地低融資成本的絕佳機會，希望提供國際投資人未來策略擬定之參考。

This thesis aims to discuss the investment and financing strategies that Buffett has been adopting since he firstly invested in Japan's top 5 trading companies in 2020. I would be glad if this could be an international investors’ reference. I discussed about Buffett’s investment philosophy. Among numerous international investment markets, I researched why Buffett chose Japan, and how Buffett specifically chose top 5 trading companies. I dug into Buffett’s financing strategy in Japan, and executed analysis in terms of direct financing, indirect financing, and USD-JPY exchange strategies. I utilized an interest rate swap calculation tool to compare Buffett’s financing cost with Japan AA rating companies’ indirect financing cost. I also assumed Buffett would end his investment at the end of 2022, and calculated the cash flows of direct financing, forward exchange, exchange option and cross currency swap. In conclusion, I think that Buffett would maintain his direct financing strategy although he had a chance to use exchange hedging tools to earn returns because there is high fixed income return in current US economic environment and Buffett would maintain high liquidity to wait for a good timing to save companies on the verge of bankruptcy and expect abnormal returns.