由地緣衝突淺析航空保安風險管理

Abstract

航空業是受地緣衝突影響極大之行業，非法干擾行為的威脅來源又與地緣衝突息息相關，全球政經情勢詭譎多變，航空保安風險管理可能會受多種地緣因素影響而持續變化，且執行風險評估時應同時考慮國際、國內或區域性之實際狀況，故本文不限定國際衝突、國內衝突或區域衝突，將地緣衝突可能導致航空器非法干擾行為之範疇均納入討論。當不確定之航空保安風險越來越多，且影響層面越來越廣，大部分時候卻只能被動的適應地緣政治變遷時，航空公司應如何及早發現風險及早因應，降低地緣衝突對航空保安之威脅，其憑藉者即航空保安管理及風險評估機制，故航空公司如何滾動式檢討並即時有效因應潛在威脅，將被動式航空保安風險管理機制進化為主動式甚至預測式為本文擬探討之問題。 ICAO強調航空保安管理系統之核心價值即是關鍵風險必須被有效的辨識出來，加以管理並定期檢視，且應以主動之態度規劃有效之航空保安措施，故本文由航空業常採用之起司理論之層級防護出發，探討航空保安風險管理機制之有效性。 本文以文獻回顧歷史上發生之知名非法干擾行為案例，並採用世界飛安基金會Aviation Safety Network數據庫，Institute of Economics and Peace資料，針對國籍航空公司較常運行之國內外機場，分析曾發生之非法干擾行為，進一步統計因應地緣衝突而造成之非法干擾行為次數；另藉由專家訪談辨識航空業環境中之地緣威脅及脆弱點；再以問卷調查分析各種地緣衝突風險因子影響非法干擾行為之可能性、各項航空保安措施對非法干擾行為嚇阻之可能性、試算不同層級航空保安措施交互影響下可減緩之風險及航空保安措施成本效益BCR，期使航空公司航空保安管理部門主動找出符合其效益之加強措施。 本文分析86個國內外機場，顯示1931-2023年劫機事件與地緣衝突相關者佔比69.7%，蓄意破壞事件與地緣衝突相關者佔比70.3%，足見非法干擾行為受地緣衝突影響極大。 本文研究地緣衝突對非法干擾行為影響最嚴重之肇因為恐怖主義、軍事行動、內部威脅及政治，其他如種族、經濟、宗教、禁航區規劃、中美關係、難民、網路保安威脅、地對空飛彈也都有不同程度之影響。 航空保安現今面臨最大的脆弱點係情資交換不足，但航空公司飛航全球各地，除了掌握國際關係脈動及各國政經情勢外，對恐怖主義、軍事行動及大國間的博弈也應多加研析，故航空業與情報主管機關間之情資交換機制係未來可以精進之方向。

The aviation industry is highly influenced by geopolitical conflicts and the acts of unlawful interference is closely related to geopolitical conflicts. The global political and economic situation is so volatile that aviation security risk management may be affected by a variety of geopolitical factors, and the actual situation of international, domestic, or regional conditions should be considered when performing a risk assessment. When there are more and more uncertain aviation security risks, and the scope of impact is getting wider and wider, most of the time, airlines can only passively adapt to geopolitical changes. Therefore, this paper is intended to explore how airlines can review and effectively respond to potential threats in a rolling manner, and transform the reactive aviation security risk management mechanism into a proactive or even predictive one in order to analyze the possible impact on airline aviation security risk. ICAO emphasizes that the core value of SeMS (Security Management System) is that critical risks must be effectively identified, managed, and regularly reviewed and that effective aviation security measures should be planned in a proactive manner. Therefore, this paper adapt Swiss Cheese Model theory to examine the effect of geopolitical conflicts on the acts of unlawful interference and the effectiveness of aviation security enhancement measures. This paper reviews several historical well-known cases of the acts of unlawful interference, and reviews the database from Flight Safety Foundation and the Institute of Economics and Peace, for domestic and foreign airports where national airlines operate more frequently, to analyze the acts of unlawful interference that has occurred, and further count the number of the acts of unlawful interference caused by geopolitical conflicts. AVSEC expert interviews is to identify the threats from geopolitical conflicts and vulnerabilities in the aviation environment; the questionnaire survey is used to analyze the potential of various geopolitical conflicts risk factors to influence the acts of unlawful interference, the potential of each aviation security measure to deter the acts of unlawful interference, and to calculate the risk mitigation and cost-effectiveness of aviation security measures. The purpose of this paper is to enable airline security departments to proactively identify the measures that meet their cost-effectiveness. This paper uses a sample of 86 domestic and international airports and shows that 69.7% of the hijacking incidents from 1931 to 2023 are related to geopolitical conflicts, and the percentage of intentional sabotage related to geopolitical conflicts is 70.3%, which shows that the acts of unlawful interference is greatly influenced by geopolitical conflicts. The most serious causes of geopolitical conflicts are terrorism, military operations, internal threats and politics, while others are ethnicity, economy, religion, conflict zone planning, Sino-US relations, refugees, cyber security threats, and surface-to-air missiles also have varying degrees of impact. However, as airlines fly around the world, in addition to keeping track of international relations and the political and economic situation of each country, we should also pay more attention to terrorism, military operations, and the game between major powers. Therefore, the information exchange mechanism between the aviation industry and intelligence authorities is a direction that can be improved in the future.