國際貿易與經濟增長--聖文森和格林納丁以及聖盧西亞為例

Abstract

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International trade is very important for the economic growth and development of countries. However, many countries cannot agree on whether or not international trade should be import-led growth or export-led growth. This is because many studies have conflicting results. This study observes two countries, St. Vincent and the Grenadines and St. Lucia, for the period from 1991 to 2021 with similar economic histories and policies to determine what effect international trade has. The study uses Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Peron (PP) to test for stationary and implements an ARDL bounds test only for St. Vincent and the Grenadines since the series were both integrates order I(0) and I(1). The series for St. Lucia integrates order I(0) which requires no further testing; this indicates that there is a long-run relationship between GDP growth rate and its explanatory variables. The cointegration results for St. Vincent and the Grenadines show that there is a long-run relationship between the GDP growth rate and its explanatory variables.

For St. Vincent and the Grenadines, the OLS results show that the growth rate of exports of goods and services is statistically significant at 5% significance level. While the growth rate of imports of goods and services is positively impacting GDP, it is not statistically significant. The OLS results for St. Lucia show that the growth rate for imports of goods and services shows that exports are not statistically significant while imports of goods and services are statistically significant at 5% significant level. Even though both countries share a similar economic structure, they both respond differently to international trade. St. Vincent and the Grenadines is export-led, while St. Lucia is import-led.