比特幣成為貨幣之可行性分析-兼論比特幣的66次協議更新

Abstract

加密貨幣自2008年10月31日中本聰提出比特幣白皮書以來，發展至今已13年。整個加密貨幣產業以比特幣經濟系統及區塊鏈技術做為基礎，截至2022年8月24日，已有20,704種因為不同特定用途而存在的加密貨幣。在彼此互補與建構下，加密貨幣已發展出屬於自己的生態產業鏈，其中包含金融服務、藝術品交易等各種形式應用。然而，加密貨幣因其去中心化的特性，造成其應用方式與傳統不同，也造成加密貨幣與法定貨幣有所差異。 為了探討比特幣成為貨幣之可能性，本研究檢視比特幣是否滿足貨幣的七項條件：共識、信心、流通性、可切割性、安全性、發行量及價格穩定性。研究後發現，比特幣滿足第一至六項條件，惟第七項「價格穩定性」，比特幣仍遠遠不足。雖然2015年穩定幣的出現，為價格穩定性帶來改善，但比特幣本質上價格震盪極大，價格穩定仍是目前無法克服的困難。本論文以「事件研究法」，針對比特幣的 66 次協議更新進行實證研究後發現：在比特幣協議更新內容與「安全性」、「應用廣度」相關時，尤其會造成比特幣價格在更新日期前後特別的波動，且近期的更新也沒有收斂的情況。未來隨著比特幣協議越來越完整，也許不再需要更新。或也許加密貨幣世界發展出其他可以改善價格波動性的辦法之後，比特幣是否能更進一步地與現行法定貨幣並存，需待日後有更多數據時進行探討。

Cryptocurrencies have evolved for 13 years since Satoshi Nakamoto proposed the Bitcoin White Paper on October 31, 2008. The entire cryptocurrency industry is based on the Bitcoin economic system and blockchain technology, and as of August 24, 2022, there are 20,704 cryptocurrencies that exist for different specific purposes. Complementing and building upon each other, cryptocurrencies have developed their own eco-industrial chains, which include various forms of applications such as financial services and art trading. However, the decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies makes their applications different from traditional ones, and makes them different from fiat currencies. To investigate the possibility of Bitcoin becoming a currency, this study examines whether Bitcoin satisfies the seven conditions of a currency: consensus, confidence, liquidity, severability, security, issue size, and price stability. The study found that Bitcoin meets the first six conditions, but the seventh, price stability, is still far from adequate. Although the emergence of stablecoins in 2015 brought improvements in price stability, Bitcoin is by nature extremely volatile and price stability is still an insurmountable problem. This paper uses an 'event study' approach to empirically study 66 protocol updates to Bitcoin, and finds that when the content of Bitcoin protocol updates is related to 'security' and 'breadth of application', it causes particular price volatility around the date of the update, and that recent updates do not converge. In the future, as the Bitcoin protocol becomes more complete, updates may no longer be necessary. Perhaps after the cryptocurrency world develops other ways to improve price volatility, Bitcoin will be able to coexist further with existing fiat currencies, pending the availability of more data.