中美貿易戰對美國電信業股價之影響

Abstract

本研究探討中美貿易戰對於美國證券業市場之電信業股價、各項自變數之相關性以及波動率之關係；收集自2017年1月1日至2021年3月31日間共1,074筆日資料，經由迴歸模型實證結果發現， 在中美貿易戰期間，負面訊息對於美國證券市場電信業股價指數產生之影響比正面訊息較為大，但兩者對於美國證券市場電信業股價之變動並無顯著影響。而美中之間貿易戰對於市場訊息之發布，由樣本期間所收集之美國電信業股價資料可以得知，美國電信業股價在事件的反映期具有影響，但在實證估計結果發現，貿易戰之市場訊息之效果並不顯著。另外，美元加權貿易指數、恐慌指數以及道瓊工業指數對於美國電信業股價具有顯著之影響，主要係因一國之產業股價多半與其貿易關係有關，且市場上造成股價波動之訊息因素多會立即反映於恐慌指數上，而工業指數則主要與製造業與進出口、順逆差等息息相關所致。

This study explores the relationship between the U.S.-China Trade War and stock price of the U.S. telecommunications industry, according to the regression model analysis, collected from January 1, 2017 to March 31, 2021, a total of 1,074 daily data, we find out that during the U.S.-China trade war, negative news had a greater impact on the stock price of the U.S. telecommunications industry than positive news, but both of them had no significant impact. The release of market information about the U.S.-China Trade War did have an impact on the stock price of the U.S. telecommunications industry according to the stock price data and their line charts we collected, but the empirical evidence is not significant. In addition, the U.S. dollar-weighted trade index, VIX, and the Dow Jones Industrial Index have a significant impact on the stock price of that industry.