基金經理人績效卓越的關鍵因素

Abstract

投資績效卓越是全市場所追求的目標，本論文透過深度訪談國內資深基金經理人，以行為財務學為基礎歸納，找尋績效卓越的關鍵因素，研究分為買點決策因素，持股比例與週期，賣點決策因素，面臨波動時的決策與模式，交易的成長歷程，並且了解經理人對於保持績效長期績優的關鍵因素的想法，亦透過問券統計相關投資習性。 研究發現所有的經理人的策略均是擇股為第一考量，擇時並非主要考量，專注選擇出值得投資的公司，避免當沖，擇股波段操作為主。持股週期大多以季為單位，而且長期高持股(90-100%)，預期獲利空間在30%以上才進場，甚至預期要50-100%以上漲幅才願意重壓，月週轉率約為10%-30%間，也遠低於市場平均，不過訪談時也發現風險承受度越高的經理人，績效波動較大，但是績效也更好，“慎選趨勢成長股，集中持股重壓長抱，周轉率低波段操作”成為績優經理人的共同特性。 歸納出四大類共二十項投資要點。關於自身能力：(1)獨立創新思考能力 (2)強大的心理素質 (3)忍受孤獨的能力 (4)引領投資風向的能力 (5)閱讀與運動與紀律 (6)找到適合自己的投資團隊。關於選股與部位:(7)基本面是最重要的依歸 (8)80-20持股分配原則: (9)投資最根本的要素是推理 (10)多算勝，少算不勝原則 (11)求知慾與好奇心-洞察力選股。關於股價反應：(12)股價是藝術不是技術 (13)股價反應未來而非過去:(14)壞學生考好成績:(15)股價漲跌取決於股票多還是錢多。關於投資心法:(16)永遠對市場謙卑(17)找到投資的信仰(18)避免隧道視野效應(19)理智比聰明重要-情緒控制的重要(20)記得活著，並且保持勇氣。 最終推導出邁向績效卓越基金經理人的十大特徵與五大層次，五大層次從TOP5:反射式交易、TOP4:有依據交易、TOP3:想像力交易、TOP2:執行力交易，最終TOP1:領導力交易。每個層次都代表不同的成長階段與影響力。

Excellent investment performance is the goal pursued by the whole market. In this paper, through in-depth interviews with excellent fund managers, based on behavioral finance, we summarize and find the key factors of excellent performance. The study found that the strategy of managers is stock selection as the first consideration, and timing is not the main consideration. They focus on selecting companies worthy of investment. The holding cycle is mostly quarterly, and the long-term high holdings (90-100%), the expected profit margin is more than 30% , the monthly turnover rate about 10%-30%, which is also far below the market average. The 20 investment points in four categories are summarized. About one's own ability: (1) independent and innovative thinking ability (2) strong psychological quality (3) ability to endure loneliness (4) ability to lead the investment trend (5) reading, exercise and discipline (6) find the investment team that suits you . About stock selection and position: (7) Fundamentals are the most important basis (8) 80-20 shareholding allocation principle: (9) The most fundamental element of investment is reasoning (10) The principle of more chances to win, less to lose (11) Curiosity and Curiosity - Insight Stock Picking. About stock price reaction:(12) stock price is art not technology (13) stock price reflects the future not the past: (14) bad students get good grades in exams: (15) stock price rises and falls depending on whether there are more stocks or more money. About investing mentality: (16) Always be humble about the market (17) Find faith in investing (18) Avoid the tunnel vision effect (19) Sanity is more important than intelligence - emotional control is important (20) Remember to live, and stay courageous. Finally, the ten characteristics and five levels of a fund manager towards outstanding performance are deduced. The five levels are from TOP5: reflexive trading, TOP4: basis-based trading, TOP3: imaginative trading, TOP2: execution trading, and finally TOP1: leadership trading . Each level represents a different stage of growth and influence.