推動中國大陸養老地產建設開發之決定因素:浙江省安吉縣個案分析

Abstract

根據中國國務院2021年5月全國人口普查結果顯示，60歲及以上人口為2億6402萬人，占18.70%；65歲及以上人口為1億9064萬人，占13.50%，老年人口迅速增加為中國大陸社會帶來不小壓力，且隨著中國大陸社會發展，家庭結構逐步走向小型化連帶的使老年人住宅消費觀念與過去有所不同，民間團體對於鄉村養老地產投資意願逐年上升，公私合作PPP模式的養老地產也逐年增加，中國大陸政府2021年中央1號文件更是多次提及農村建設與養老保險，期望透過中央政策的推動解決所得分配不均和高齡化社會的雙重問題。 另一方面，2021年發布之《中共中央關於制定國民經濟和社會發展第十四個五年規劃和二〇三五年遠景目標綱要》中，對於中國新發展階段明確指出要以農村現代化為優先，而浙江省安吉縣為習近平兩山理論的發源地與共同富裕示範區，在農村現代化與養老地產上具指標性地位。為此本文引用潘玥岑（2020）之問卷調查結果，透過順序羅吉斯迴歸分析不同機構（政府、投資以及建設方、金融機構）、規模大小、從事養老地產時間長短以及對於鄉村養老地產看法等變項，如何影響受訪者未來從事PPP與養老地產相結合項目的意願。 研究結果顯示，從事養老地產或PPP項目相關經驗以及對於鄉村養老地產技術難度、田園綜合體概念融入、金融機構資金支持滿意度、投資方或建設方服務滿意度，皆會影響未來從事養老地產意願，因此本研究建議中國大陸政府應以優化鄉村建設為優先，善用鄉村田園綜合體概念的優勢，並提供更多政策促進金融機構投入資金於養老地產的開發上，以吸引更多企業未來願意從事養老地產建設，緩解中國大陸高齡化問題，帶動整體鄉村發展。

According to the results of the National Census of the State Council of China in May 2021, the population of 60 years and over is 264.02 million, accounting for 18.70%; the population of 65 and over is 190.64 million, accounting for 13.50%. The elderly population is rapidly increasing. Chinese society faces the pressure of aging, and with the development of the society in China, family structure has gradually become smaller. Consumption concept of elderly housing has been different from the past. The willingness of private organizations to invest in rural retirement real estate has increased year by year. Public-private cooperation, the PPP model of pension real estate, has also increased. Chinese government's 2021 No. 1 Central Document also mentioned rural construction and pension insurance many times, hoping to solve the dual problems of uneven income distribution and an aging society through the promotion of central policies. On the other hand, in the '14th Five-Year Plan formulation' issued in 2021, it is clearly stated that rural modernization should be given priority for China's new development stage. Anji County, Zhejiang Province, is the birthplace of Xi Jinping's two-mountain theory and a demonstration area for common prosperity. It has an indicative status in rural modernization and senior care real estate. To this end, this article quotes Pan （2020） questionnaire survey results, using ordered logistic regression model to analyze different institutions （government, investment and construction, financial institutions）, size and length of time engaged in retirement real estate, and views on rural retirement real estate and so on. We try to explain the reasons that affect the willingness to invest in pension real estate through different variables. The research results show that relevant experience in senior care real estate or PPP projects, technical difficulty of rural senior care real estate, integration of pastoral complex concepts, satisfaction with financial institution funding support, and satisfaction with investors or builders' services will all affect the policy incentives in pension housing in the future. Therefore, this research suggests that the Chinese government should prioritize the optimization of rural construction and provide more policies incentivize financial institutions to invest in the development of senior care real estate, so as to attract more companies willing to engage in senior real estate construction in the future and ease the aging of China.