請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件:
http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/8372
完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 江金倉(Chin-Tsang Chiang) | |
dc.contributor.author | Min-Ren Guan | en |
dc.contributor.author | 管敏仁 | zh_TW |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-05-20T00:52:59Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2021-07-31 | |
dc.date.available | 2021-05-20T00:52:59Z | - |
dc.date.copyright | 2020-08-04 | |
dc.date.issued | 2020 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2020-07-30 | |
dc.identifier.citation | [1] Stefani, R. T. (1977). Football and basketball predictions using least squares. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 7(2), 117-121. [2] Stefani, R. T. (1980). Improved least squares football, basketball, and soccer predictions. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 10(2), 116-123. [3] Clarke, S. R., and Norman, J. M. (1995). Home ground advantage of individual clubs in english soccer. The Statistician, 44(4), 509. [4] Harville, D. (1977). The use of linear-model methodology to rate high school or college football teams. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 72(358), 278-289. [5] Fahrmeir, L., and Tutz, G. (1994). Dynamic stochastic models for timedependent ordered paired comparison systems. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89(428), 1438-1449. [6] Cattelan, M., Varin, C., and Firth, D. (2012). Dynamic Bradley-Terry modelling of sports tournaments. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 62(1), 135-150. [7] Schwarz, G. (1978). Estimating the dimension of a model. The Annals of Statistics, 6(2), 461464. [8] Bresler, A. (n.d.). R’s interface to NBA data. Retrieved July 29, 2020 from http://asbcllc.com/nbastatR/ [9] Thurstone, L. L. (1927). A law of comparative judgment. Psychological Review, 34(4), 273286. [10] Zermelo, E. (1929). Die berechnung der turnier-Ergebnisse als ein maximumproblem der wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung. Math Z 29, 436460. [11] Bradley, R. A., and; Terry, M. E. (1952). Rank analysis of incomplete block designs: I. the method of paired comparisons. Biometrika, 39(3/4), 324. [12] Harville, D. (1976). Extension of the Gauss-Markov Theorem to Include the Estimation of Random Effects. The Annals of Statistics, 4(2), 384-395. [13] Batchelder, W. H., Bershad, N. J., and Simpson, R. S. (1992). Dynamic paired-comparison scaling. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 36(2), 185-212. [14] Harville, D. A. (2003). The selection or seeding of college basketball or football teams for postseason competition. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 98(461), 17-27. [15] Wang J. (2010). Consistent selection of the number of clusters via crossvalidation. Biometrika, 97(4), 893904. [16] Lim, A., Chiang, C. T., and Teng, J. C. (2018). Estimating robot strengths with application to selection of alliance members in FIRST robotics competitions. arXiv preprint arXiv:1810.05763. | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/8372 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 在成對比較類型的運動數據分析中,實務工作者和研究者們認知球隊在連續比賽中,由於受傷、團隊心理和團隊進步會導致團隊能力變化。描述分數差或比賽結果最常用的框架主要是對主場隊伍和客場隊伍的能力差做適當的轉換。在這樣的考慮下, 隊伍能力的變化可以在頻率派學者或貝氏的觀點下進一步建模。通過整合這些特點到模型的構造中,我們對團隊能力提出更通用的動態模型。此外, 我們還制定了一些準則來從競爭模型中選出擁有較好季後賽預測力的模型。我們透過美國國家籃球協會 2009 2010 賽季到 2018 2019 賽季的數據來調查提案的實用性。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | In paired-comparison sports data analysis, practitioners and researchers have identified the varying abilities of teams due to injuries, team psychology, and team improvement in the course of sequential competitions. The most commonly used framework to describe the score difference or the match outcome is mainly based on an appropriate transformation of the difference in abilities of the home team and the visiting team. Under such consideration, the abilities of teams can be further modelled with dynamic effects in the frequentist or Bayesian perspective. By integrating these features into a model formulation, we propose more general dynamic models for the abilities of teams. In addition, some criteria are developed to select a better predictive model for playoffs among competing models. The practicality of our proposal is also investigated by the data from the 2009-2010 season to the 2018-2019 season of the National Basketball Association. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-05-20T00:52:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 U0001-2807202016420200.pdf: 1586472 bytes, checksum: 8cb619e23de38c64d6120f8995f87ae2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2020 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | Abstract i List of Figures iii List of Tables iv 1 Introduction 1 2 Existing Paired Comparison Models 3 3 Proposed Models for Dynamic Effects 5 3.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 3.2 Regression Model Formulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 4 Estimation and Model Selection 10 4.1 Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 4.2 Model Selection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 5 An Application to National Basketball Association 14 6 Conclusion and Discussion 16 Reference 18 | |
dc.language.iso | en | |
dc.title | 運動賽事期間隊伍能力的變化分析 | zh_TW |
dc.title | Analyzing Dynamic Abilities of Teams in Sports Events | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 108-2 | |
dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 黃名鉞(Ming-Yueh Huang),何弘棋(Hung-Chi Ho) | |
dc.subject.keyword | 成對比較,動態能力,混合效應模型,模型選擇,預測率,預測均方差, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | paired comparisons,dynamic abilities,mixed effects models,model selection,proportion of correct predictions,prediction mean squared error, | en |
dc.relation.page | 24 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202001978 | |
dc.rights.note | 同意授權(全球公開) | |
dc.date.accepted | 2020-07-30 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 理學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 應用數學科學研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 應用數學科學研究所 |
文件中的檔案:
檔案 | 大小 | 格式 | |
---|---|---|---|
U0001-2807202016420200.pdf | 1.55 MB | Adobe PDF | 檢視/開啟 |
系統中的文件,除了特別指名其著作權條款之外,均受到著作權保護,並且保留所有的權利。