以擴散模型與基礎再生數分析新冠肺炎疫情與恐慌報導聲量

Abstract

新冠肺炎在二Ｏ二Ｏ年帶給全人類莫大影響，全球破千萬人染疫，傳染速度非常之快，而新聞媒體的聲量隨著疫情發展一同成長，人民恐慌隨之而來，本研究欲以擴散模型與基礎再生數探討疫情期間的疫情擴散狀況與恐慌蔓延情況。 疫情方面，本研究將美國、英國、澳洲、加拿大、臺灣及中國的疫情資料作為輸入，利用巴斯擴散模型分析各國疫情擴散情形，解析出有別於疫情基礎再生數能夠給予的資訊，探討造成疫情以不同步調蔓延的原因。 恐慌方面，藉由風險溝通理論中的憤怨恐慌要素，本研究將恐慌要素轉化為關鍵字，從疫情期間各大媒體發布的新聞篩選出恐慌聲量，利用巴斯擴散模型進行分析，藉此衡量民眾恐慌程度。研究發現臺灣與中國在估計結果中與其他國家明顯不同，本研究認為可能與文化差異與手機使用情況有關。 最後，欲研究疫情與恐慌聲量之間的關係，以單向影響擴散模型分析，尋找疫情與恐慌聲量之相關性是否存在。研究發現中國的疫情對於恐慌聲量有顯著負向影響，推論可能因其政體與處理公衛事件之歷史有關；其餘各國資料皆不存在顯著單向影響性，應視疫情與恐慌為兩獨立成長的曲線。而不論是否存在關聯性，在研究中也發現各國的恐慌皆早於疫情開始蔓延。

COVID-19 has a great impact on all mankind in 2020. Millions of people around the world were infected. The media coverage of COVID-19 had grown together with the pandemic and the panic had followed. This study intended to make use of diffusion models and basic production number to explore the spread of pandemic and panic during the epidemic. To analyze the spread of COVID-19 in various countries, we used the Bass diffusion model and took the epidemic data of the United States, Britain, Australia, Canada, Taiwan and China as input to discuss the reason why spreads of the epidemic across countries were at different speed and extract information different from ${R_0}$ from estimates. As for panic, through the components of outrage proposed by Sandman in his risk communication theory, this study turned the components into keywords to quantify the amount of panic from the news released by major media during the epidemic and used the Bass diffusion model for analysis and to measure the degree of panic among the people. We found that Taiwan and China are apparently different from other countries in the estimation results. This study suggested that the underlying reasons behind the numbers by culture differences and difference of the usage rate of mobile phone. Lastly, to study the relationship between the epidemic and the panic, we used the one-way effect diffusion model to find out whether the correlation between the epidemic and the degree of panic exists. We found that the epidemic of China has a significant negative effect on panic, which might be caused by its regime. In other countries, the epidemic and panic should be regarded as two independent growth curves. Regardless of whether there is a correlation or not, we also found that the panic always started to spread out earlier than the epidemic.