人民幣國際化的現況與展望

Abstract

近年來中國為增進在國際經濟、政治上的發言權，積極推動人民幣國際化。中國大陸崛起的經濟實力已經使各國決策機構無法忽視人民幣的影響力，因此分析人民幣國際化程度是有意義的。本文以貨幣功能三個面向的國際化為框架切入，整理最新公開資訊呈現人民幣國際化現況，並使用118種貨幣匯率資料迴歸分析，檢驗人民幣全球金融危機前後，作為定錨貨幣影響力是否擴大，再探討中國在推動人民幣國際化過程中，所遇到的主要障礙，最後以中國大陸政府政策主軸與其推進狀況分析國際化展望。本文發現，人民幣國際化的阻礙在於金融市場自由度不足，中國政府推動人民幣國際化的努力，仍面臨歷金融市場不成熟之阻力。

China has been progressively pushing forward RMB internationalization recently to enhance its international economic and political status. The rising Chinese economy size has made the impact of RMB unignorable, so it is of interest to analyze the current state of RMB internationalization. By inspecting the three functions of currencies, we organize the latest public information to present the current state of RMB internationalization. Furthermore, we use exchange rate data of 118 currencies to access if the importance of RMB as an anchor currency increased after the global financial crisis. Then we discuss the main obstacle China encounters during the RMB internationalization process. Finally, we look into the policies taken by China to overcome the obstacle. We find that the main obstacle is the immaturity of financial market in China, and the policies taken to enhance RMB internalization are limited by it.