中國經濟崛起對鄰國的影響－以附加價值法觀之

Abstract

本文採用附加價值衡量法，而非傳統貿易數據，衡量一國家(一部門)於生產過程中，實際創造的附加價值。應用1995-2011之樣本期間，觀察在不同階段的貿易政策下，使用中間財加工生產後製成商品出口中，所涵蓋的中國中間財附加價值(Domestic Intermediate Value Added, DIVA)，以及他國的中間財附加價值(Foreign Intermediate Value Added, FIVA)，是否會隨著不同政策而有所消長？此外，亦應用重力模型，檢驗第三市場中，中國的附加價值出口(value added exports, VAE)是否對鄰國的VAE帶來「替代效果」？抑或是「互補效果」？本文結果發現在探討中國使用中間財加工製成最終財出口中，各國於中高技術密集度產業的成長率衰退尤其嚴重，隱含中國紅色供應鏈政策，瞄準中高與高科技產業，並且取得成效。本文亦發現紅色供應鏈政策實施後，台灣、日本、韓國所遭受的負面衝擊較其他國家更大。此外，進一步探討第三市場中，中國與鄰國的VAE存在替代/互補效果之議題。實證結果發現中國的政策對高收入鄰國的各部門逐漸帶來負面影響。中國的政策對中低收入鄰國的中高技術密集度部門逐漸帶來負面影響，但對中低、低技術密集度部門則逐漸帶來正面影響。

This paper performs the measurement of value added content created by a country (or a sector) during the production process by the value added approach rather than conventional gross trade statistics. Applying this measurement, the domestic intermediate value added (DIVA) and foreign intermediate value added (FIVA) embodied in the manufacturing process of final goods using intermediate goods as inputs can be calculated. Furthermore, the analysis of DIVA and FIVA change against different China’s international trade policies from 1995 to 2011 is thus achievable. In this paper, the statistical analysis indicates the FIVA’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of medium and high technology intensity sectors dramatically decreases after 2006. Specifically, it implies the red supply policies in China target at those sectors with medium and high technology and pan out. From the aspect of difference between countries, Taiwan, Japan and Korea come up against a larger negative effect after adopting the red supply polices by China. In addition to that, this paper examines how the China’s value added exports (VAE) effects on its neighbors’ VAE by gravity model. Do China’s neighbors encounter a “substitution effects” or a “complementary effect” due to China’s emergence? The empirical results reveal that China’s policies in different period lead a negative effect on its high income neighbors in each sector, also a negative effect on its medium and low income neighbors in high technological intensity sectors, instead a positive effect on its medium and low income neighbors in medium and low technological intensity sectors.