OPEC 產量政策與美國頁岩油產量對油價影響之實證研究

Abstract

過去頁岩油氣資源技術不足的情況下，開採成本過高被視為難以開採，但在水平鑽井 (horizontal drilling) 及水力壓裂 (hydraulic fracturing) 等頁岩油氣開採技術發展漸趨成熟，其中美國因擁有先進的鑽井技術以及豐富的蘊藏量，成為全球頁岩油氣開採活動最為活躍的國家，頁岩油產量高速成長使得美國原油產量與市占率快速提升，同時也威脅到 OPEC 在原油市場的地位，因此本研究為了解在美國頁岩油產量大幅提升之下，對 OPEC 產量政策的因應與國際原油價格之影響。 首先建立美國西德州原油價格函數來分析美國原油產量與 OPEC 產量政策對其國內原油價格之影響。接下來再建立布侖特原油價格函數做同樣分析，觀察是否有相同的實證結果。實證結果顯示美國原油產量增加時，對西德州原油價格將會因此而下跌，而 OPEC 產量目標增加時，同樣也會促使西德州原油價格下跌。而在布侖特原油價格函數中，美國原油產量對布侖特原油實證結果卻不顯著，估計是美國原油在 2015 年 12 月才開放出口，故影響布侖特原油價格較小，才有不顯著的結果。

It was unworkable for oil companies to explore and extract oil shale due to immature technology in the past. However, the advanced technologies of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have been tested, while the United States becomes the leader around the global in oil share extraction owing to better drilling technology and abundant resources. The country’s oil shale production grows meaningfully with rapid rise in market share, which gives a threat to OPEC in crude oil markets. In the essay, we try to analyze the impacts of higher shale oil production in the U.S. could make for the global crude oil prices and OPEC’s oil policy. First of all, we create inversed demand function of WTI crude and then followed by that of Brent oil to find out the results on crude oil prices trend. It finally approved that the WTI crude prices will drop when U.S. raises crude oil production. Nevertheless, the impact of growing crude oil production in the U.S. on Brent crude prices is insignificant. We believe the reasons might be the U.S. enacted legislation authorizing export of the country’s crude oil late on December, 2015