日本人如何看待中國崛起：亞洲民主動態調查的分析

Abstract

在中國崛起的背景之下，中國崛起的軟實力環境廣泛受到研究者討論。本文以此為研究背景，並在延續既有文獻的基礎上，針對日本人看待中國崛起的視角開展全文之研究。在影響認知的因素中，本文以兩岸關係感性認同和經濟理性的分析框架為借鏡，歸結出政治體制認知、經濟評估，以及民族主義傾向三個方面的影響因素。實證研究中，本文以《亞洲民主動態調查》為研究資料來源。固然受限於問卷設計為適用於跨國之間的比較研究，而難以完全貼近日本本身的情況，但仍然在實證結果中有部份進展。經由實證分析結果可知，認知中國民主程度、經濟前景評估和民族主義傾向皆在日本人看待中國崛起中有所影響，只是程度大小有所不同。日本人雖然整體而言負面看待中國崛起，但其內部仍然有所差異，而教育程度高低是其中一項影響因素。由兩岸關係相關研究所得出的分析框架，置於中日關係之下同樣適用。經由本研究結果得知，對於政治體制差異的不信任和經濟利益因素，在日本人看待中國崛起的面向上扮演重要角色。

With the background of China’s rise, the soft power of China has been widely discussed. Based on the previous research, this thesis focuses on how Japanese view the rise of China. There are many cognitive factors in international relations. According to the research on cross-strait relations, we have learned that identity and expected economic benefits have important effects on Taiwanese vote choices. Based on it, this thesis takes the perceived democratic level of China, economic evaluations, and the nationalism as the factors which influence how Japanese view the rise of China. As an empirical study, this thesis applies the data from the Asia Barometer Survey to examine the research problem. Because the Asia Barometer Survey is a cross-national research project, the design of the questionnaire could not fit this thesis very well, but we still have made some progress. The research shows how the perceived democratic level of China, economic evaluations, and the nationalism influence the way Japanese view the rise of China with different level. Although the Japanese generally view China’s rise negatively, there are still differences within it. The level of education is one of the factor which cause the differences. The cognitive framework which is learned from the research on cross-strait relations could also apply to Sino-Japanese Relations. The research findings suggest that the perceived democratic level of China and economic evaluations play an important role in how Japanese view the rise of China.