府際關係、財政依賴與經濟政策的創新擴散：以中國大陸科技金融政策為例（2007-2017）

Abstract

本文以科技金融政策在中國大陸地級市政府的政策擴散為例，重點探討府際關係、財政依賴對於經濟政策擴散的影響。本文收集並用事件史研究法分析了286個地級市2007-2017年間的面板數據。研究發現：第一，地級市政府在採納經濟政策的過程中會受到來自於上級政府壓力和同級城市的競爭壓力，從而更加傾向於採納該政策。第二，地級市政府的政策創新會受到其對上級財政依賴的影響，其財政依賴程度越高採納新政策的傾向性越低。這一方面是因為財政依賴高的城市財政能力較差，另一方面是因為財政依賴程度高的城市更傾向於採納可以獲得來自上級的財政轉移的政策，而不是增加稅收收入的政策。第三，在同省其他省市採納率較高時，財政依賴程度較高的城市會更加傾向于採納科技金融政策。這說明了財政依賴程度較高的城市更傾向于跟風模仿。

This paper takes the policy diffusion of fintech policies in prefecture-level city governments in mainland China as an example, focusing on the influence of inter-governmental relations and financial dependence on economic policy diffusion.This paper collected and analyzed panel data of 286 prefecture-level cities from 2007 to 2017 with the method of event history research.The findings are as follows: firstly, in the process of adopting economic policies, prefecture-level city governments will be subject to pressure from superior governments and competitive pressure from cities at the same level, so they are more inclined to adopt such policies.Second, the policy innovation of prefecture-level city governments will be affected by their financial dependence on their superiors. The higher the degree of financial dependence, the lower the tendency to adopt new policies.Third, the greater the pressure from superiors, the more likely cities with a high degree of financial dependence are to adopt innovative policies.On the one hand, the cities with high financial dependence have poor financial capacity; on the other hand, the cities with high financial dependence are more inclined to adopt policies that can obtain financial transfers from their superiors rather than policies that can increase tax revenue.Fourth, the promulgation of the central s&t finance policy has affected prefecture-level cities, making it take two years for them to adopt the same policy.But for cities with high levels of financial dependence, the impact is only a year away.