台灣潛艦採購政策演變

Abstract

潛艦在大海中的隱匿與戰略性，對中國犯台具有極大嚇阻效果，而台灣至今只有兩艘作戰潛艦、以及兩艘訓練用潛艦，水下戰力嚴重缺乏。為改善此種情形，中華民國海軍於2017年3月1日，正式與台船簽約，啟動潛艦國造計畫；隔年川普政府同意以商售方式，給予台灣國造潛艦相關系統的「行銷核准」。 在此之前，台灣致力籌獲潛艦30年，希望能循軍購方式獲得潛艦，但始終無法如願；雖然小布希總統時期一度曾同意軍售台灣八艘潛艦，卻因為台灣政局因素遭到擱置，引起美方對台灣自我防衛的質疑。馬英九總統任內、國民黨完全執政的 8年內，因為與中國交流密切，不願軍購觸及中國紅線，對潛艦採購案持消極態度，使台灣海軍對美採購潛艦無法成功。蔡英文總統上任後，改變昔日政府「傾中」策略，與中國保持距離，力求國家安全，推動國防自主，堅持潛艦國造政策，明確訂出2025年第一艘國造潛艦成功下水的目標，以國造潛艦的方式，打造台灣的水下艦隊。 潛艦具有高機敏性，以及採購動輒千億預算的昂貴價格，台灣採購潛艦更觸及美中台三邊之間的敏感神經。在台灣從沒有製造潛艦經驗，潛艦國造更需要主要武器輸出國、尤其是美國同意支援。本研究藉由對馬英九政府時期潛艦對外採購政策失敗，到蔡英文政府改為潛艦國造等過程之分析，進一步探討兩位元首對軍事採購觀念不同，其中包含兩位總統的國家認同差異，對國防安全認同與軍購政策的落差，與中國之間互動的改變等因素對台灣籌獲潛艦之影響；以及台灣如何重新獲得美方對台灣信任，協助台灣潛艦國造政策。

The concealment and strategic nature of the submarine in the ocean has a great deterrent effect if China violates Taiwan. However, Taiwan has only two combat submarines and two training ones, and there is a serious lack of underwater combat power. In order to improve this situation, the Republic of China Navy officially signed a contract with Taiwanese ships company on March 1, 2017 to launch a submarine national construction plan. The next year, the U.S.A. Trump administration agreed to provide Taiwan’s national submarine-related system in a commercial manner. 'Marketing Approval' with a marketing license. Taiwan has committed to acquiring submarines for 30 years before that. Taiwan hope to acquire submarines by military purchases, but it was never able to do so; although President Bush once agreed to arms out Taiwan’s eight submarines, but is was affected by Taiwan’s political situation. When it was put on hold, it caused the US to question Taiwan’s self-defense. During the eight-year term of President Ma Ying-jeou and the Kuomintang's administration had close communications with China and didn't want military purchases touch the red line of the China government. The negative attitude towards the submarine procurement case made the Taiwan Navy unable to succeed in purchasing submarines for the United States. After 2018 party alternation, President Tsai Ing-wen changed the strategy of the former government to 'pour in the middle', keep a distance from China for national security. President Tsai also promoted national defense autonomy and adhered to the policy of submarine national creation. Taiwan Navy clearly set out the successful launch of the first national submarine in 2025. The goal is to build Taiwan's underwater fleet in the form of national submarines. Submarines are highly sensitive with the expensive price hundreds of billions of dollars. Taiwan's procurement of submarines touches the sensitive nerves among the three sides of the US, China ,and Taiwan. There is no submarine manufacturing experience in Taiwan. It also needs more major weapons exporting countries, especially United States, to agree to support. This study further explores the different views of the two president of R.O.C.,Taiwan on military procurement, by the failure of the foreign procurement policy of the Ma Ying-jeou government and the process analysis of the Tsai-English government changed the policy. Which contains the differences of national identity between two presidents makes the gap of national defense security approval and military procurement policy. It also finds that The impact of changes in interaction with China on Taiwan’s acquisition of submarines; And how Taiwan regained the US trust and assisted Taiwan’s submarine national manufacturing policy.