技術性貿易壁壘對中國出口的影響 —基於貿易引力模型的實證分析

Abstract

保護主義一直伴隨經濟全球化存在，兩者隨著經濟形勢的好壞此消彼長，在過去幾年全球經濟面臨困難的情況下，貿易保護主義再度興起。眾多貿易保護形勢中，傳統的關稅等手段隨著貿易自由化的推動逐漸減少，而技術性貿易壁壘正憑藉其隱蔽、正當、難以規避的特點成為貿易保護的主要形式。中國的經濟依靠向全世界出口得到騰飛，在各國紛紛採取貿易保護主義的時候自然也是首當其衝的受害者，面對貿易保護主義的新變化，應該更多地去了解、研究、規避這些變化帶來的影響，保證中國出口貿易能夠持續健康的發展。 本文首先梳理了技術性貿易壁壘的相關研究，從技術性貿易壁壘開始登上國際舞台開始，相關研究從理論上的分析逐漸變為基於數據的實證分析，隨著相關數據的逐漸豐富可得，實證分析也變得相對容易。在這些分析中基於貿易引力模型的分析最為主流，眾多學者用引力模型對各行業進行了研究。其次，本文收集了歷年披露的技術性貿易壁壘資料，分析了其對世界經濟貿易的影響，以及中國正在遭受的技術性貿易壁壘現狀。基於這種現狀來分析技術性貿易壁壘對中國出口的影響，在理論方面從數量機制和價格機制方面進行了分析，在實證方面收集了1995年到2016年的面板數據，基於引力模型對技術性貿易壁壘的影響進行了廻歸分析，探究了其與中國出口之間的聯繫。本文的創新點在於在傳統引力模型的基礎上加入了國家發達程度和區域貿易協定這兩個虛擬變數，從更多維度來探析中國出口的影響因素。最後基於實證結果得出結論並提出政策建議。

Protectionism has always been accompanied by the economic globalization. In the past few years, trade protectionism has re-emerged with the economic downturn. Meanwhile traditional tariffs gradually decrease with the promotion of trade liberalization, and technical barriers to trade are becoming the main form of trade protection because of their hidden, legitimate, and inescapable characteristics. As an export-oriented economy, China should learn more about the impact of these changes to make sure China's export trade can keep developing in a healthy way. In this article we combed the relevant research of technical barriers to trade, from the theoretical analysis to empirical analysis. In these analyses, the analysis based on the Gravity Model of Trade is the mainstream. Many scholars have used this model to conduct numerous studies on various industries. This paper also collects information of technical barriers to trade disclosed over the years, which indicate its impact on the world trade and China’s exports. Based on the panel data from 1995 to 2016 we analyzed the impact of trade barriers by regression in Eviews. Different from other researches, this paper considers two virtual variables of national development and regional trade agreements, analyzing the influencing factors of Chinese exports from more dimensions. Finally, we proposed some policy recommendations.