國際援助對於非洲民主化之影響─不同政體類型之比較

Abstract

本論文試圖回答威權國家的援助如何影響非洲的民主化。既有文獻傾向將所有援助視為同質，而未做進一步的分別。本文區分了來自民主國家以及威權國家的援助，並以Aiddata在2000年到2010年間的援助資料，檢視他們如何對非洲的民主化造成不同的影響。迴歸結果發現威權國家援助對民主化有負面影響：威權國家援助本身雖然不影響被援助國的民主化，但它和民主國家援助的交互作用卻會降低一國發生民主化的可能性。本文進一步以援助國的通貨膨脹率作為工具變項並且確認該因果關係。 針對此發現，本文強調民主國家因為對於國際規範的承諾，以及國內民主機制的制衡，往往對於受援國有較高的治理要求；威權國家因為強調不干涉他國內政原則，以及本身就無法達到國際組織對於良好治理的要求，所以並不傾向將外援與治理品質掛勾。然而，非洲國家的民主發展往往和該國的治理品質有高度的正相關。在兩千年以後，隨著越來越多的威權國家加入了援助的行列，民主國家為了維持對於受援國的控制，往往會降低對於治理品質的要求。在此情況下，非洲國家不僅缺乏進一步改革的動力，許多國家甚至因此面臨了民主衰退。最後，本文以馬拉威為例，說明在2008年中馬建交後，來自中國等國的威權援助如何成為了馬國重要的援助來源，並讓英美等傳統援助國逐漸放寬對於馬國治理品質的要求，而降低馬國政府民主改革的步伐。

The thesis examines how aid from authoritarian regimes affects democratization in Africa. The literature does not pay much attention to the regime types of donors; however, as more and more authoritarian countries enter the international aid market, the assumption of donor homogeneity does not always hold. Using aid data from the Aiddata between 2000 to 2010, I found that aid from authoritarian countries hinders demoncratization of African countries: although aid from authoritarian countries itself does not affect democratization of African countries, its interaction with aid from democratic countries has a negative effect on democratization. I further used donors’ inflation rates as instrument variables and confirmed the causality. I argue that democratic and authoritarian donors do not pay equal attention to the governance quality of recipients: while democratic donors often require recipients to demonstrate good governance for receiving aid, as they are more commited to international norms and constranited by domestic institutions, authoritarian donors seldom take the recipients’ quality of governance into account, as they embrace the principle of non-intervention and cannot achieve the governance quality demanded by the international community even within their own territories. However, the quality of governance is closely associated with the level of democracy in Africa. As aid from authoritarian countries accounts for a greater proportion of foreign assistance in the 21st century, democratic donors tend to lower their requirements of governance, as they face competition from authoritarian donors and desire to maintain their influence over recipient countries. It impedes the progess of democracy of African countries. I used Malawi as a case study to further illustrate how aid from authoritarian countries has blocked Malawian democratic development since 2008, when China became one of the main donors in Malawi because of the establishment of diplomatic relations between two countries.