產品生命週期與中國政策對太陽能電池產業的影響

Abstract

本文探討太陽能電池產業中，先進國家(美國、日本、德國)與後進國家(中國大陸、台灣、韓國)間的生產與專利表現。其中生產量樣本期間為2001年至2011年，專利樣本期間為1970年至2010年。 本文引入產品生命週期(product life cycle)與優勢設計(dominant design)以介紹光電科技中，進入產業的時機。並採用Teece(1986)的研發理論來解釋太陽光電產業中，後進國家產能追趕的行為。 在實證分析上，在2008年後中國太陽能光電廠商產能大幅躍進，此可歸因於中國政府供給面補貼政策的介入。最後我們給了太陽能光電後進國家兩個政策上的建議，一、廠商可強化第二代太陽能光電技術的研發投入。二、政府應強化第二代太陽能光電的需求面政策。

The thesis analyzes the production and patenting performance among six countries, three forerunners (US, Japan and Germany) and three followers (China, Taiwan and S. Korea) in Solar Photovoltaic Cell industry. We use production data from 2001 to 2011 and patent number data from 1970 to 2010 in the six countries and worldwide. In this paper, we introduce product life cycle and dominant design to illustrate the importance of timing when the PV technology was introduced into the renewable energy market. In addition, we adopt Teece’s theory on innovation (1986) to explain followers’ catching up behavior in solar PV production. Besides, we find out the excellence on Chinese PV production after 2008, which is out of Teece’s projection. In our observation, the solar PV market is heavily impacted by Chinese government policies through various supply-side subsidies. The policies also explain the surge of Chinese PV production well. Finally, we give two comments of emphasis on R&D and provision of demand-side policies in 2nd generation of PV industry for follower’s firms and governments respectively.