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標題: | 兩岸經濟合作架構協議(ECFA)對台灣機械業之貿易效果-引力模型的驗證 The Trade Effect upon Taiwan Machinery Industry under the ECFA-Application of the Gravity Model |
作者: | Ying-Ju Chen 陳瀅如 |
指導教授: | 李顯峰 |
關鍵字: | 兩岸經濟合作架構協議,ECFA,區域貿易協定,區域經濟整合,引力模型, Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement,ECFA,Regional Trading Agreements,Regional Economic Integration,Gravity Model, |
出版年 : | 2013 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 在經濟全球化發展下,貿易自由化之浪潮隨之而起,各國為促進對外貿易流量,紛紛推動FTA之締結,近年亞洲各國透過「東協加N」、雙邊FTA等整合模式,建立經濟合作架構協議,近十年亞洲國家FTA洽簽數量,截至2012年1月止,已達190個,台灣在ECFA簽署之前,僅與中美洲5個國家簽訂自由貿易協定,台灣深具經濟邊緣化之危機。因此,推動與主要貿易國洽簽自由貿易協定,自為相當重要之課題。
中國大陸為台灣第一大的貿易伙伴,近年來並由世界工廠轉向世界市場,兩岸經濟合作架構協議之簽署,可為台灣產業帶來關稅減免之優惠,取得較競爭對手國家如南韓、日本之競爭優勢,及面對東協成員國取得公平競爭的基礎。ECFA早期收獲計畫已自2011年1月1日生效,並於2012年進入第二階段的關稅調降,多數產品已享有零關稅優惠,依據ECFA早期收獲計畫,機械產業為中國大陸同意對台灣降稅之貨品項數的前三大產業之一,且中國大陸為台灣機械產業之第一大出口國,因此本研究以台灣機械業為例,利用引力模型,就2005-2012年台灣與美國、中國大陸、日本等11個主要貿易國之機械產品貿易情形,分析影響雙邊貿易流量因素,及探討ECFA簽署對台灣機械業貿易量的影響效果,依結果發現ECFA對於台灣機械業之貿易量有正向影響效果,此外也發現,EU、CEPA、CAFTA等區域貿易協定對於台灣機械業之貿易量有負向效果。 建議未來可就ECFA早期收穫具參考性之產業如紡織業、石化業等進行研究,分析比較ECFA早期收獲計畫對於不同產業的影響效果及對台灣貿易量的影響,使其更有參考價值,可供未來台灣與不同貿易國簽署FTA之參考。 Under the development of Economic Globalization, the trend of Trade Liberalization has arising. To promote the quantum of Foreign trade , most countries of the world promote to sign a Free trade Agreement. Recent years, the countries of Asian has used the different way ,such as「ASEAN+N」、bilateral FTA, to build the economic cooperation framework. To January 2012,the number of FTA signed by Asian countries have reached to190. However, Taiwan only signed 5 FTAs with Central America countries before Economic Cooperation Framework. Indeed, Taiwan face the crisis of economic marginalization. Therefore, it is an important issue to sign the FTA with mail trading countries. The Mainland China is the biggest trading partner of Taiwan. Recently years, China has become the World market from the World factory. The sign of Economic Cooperation Framework between Taiwan and Mainland China will bring the tariff reduction and exemption. Besides, Taiwan also can get competition advantage in the market of Mainland China when face the challenge of South Korea and Japan, and get the same competition condition with the countries of ASEAN. Since 1st ,January 2011, the Economic Cooperation Framework between Taiwan and Mainland China has been effect ,and step into the second stage from 1st ,January 2012. Now, most product in the harvest list of ECFA has got the tariff reduction and exemption. According to the harvest list of ECFA, machinery industry is the 3rd industry in the number of products getting the tariff reduction and exemption. Owing to Mainland China is the biggest trading partner of Taiwan machinery industry, the thesis choose the Taiwan machinery industry as the Subject, take Gravity Model as the research method, and use the data of Taiwan'foreign trade with 11 trading countries to analyze the factors of affect bilateral trading and the effect of ECFA. It finds that ECFA brings the positive effect to Taiwan machinery industry'foreign trade. Besides, it also finds that EU、CEPA、CAFTA bring negative effect to Taiwan machinery industry'foreign trade. To the further research, we suggest that it can choose the representative industry such as textile industry or petrochemical industry to analyze the effect in the different industry ,and the impact in Taiwan'foreign trade. The in-depth research will provide more reference information and upgrade the value of the research. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/62729 |
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